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The QF I am waiting most is the one between my compatriot and the world #1, Simona Halep, and the #6 ranked player from Czech Republic, Karolina Pliskova.
The fact that we cannot ignore is that neither of these two had great results in the past in Australian Open. Pliskova managed to get 2 times to 3rd round and last year (only time) to the QF where she lost to Lucic-Baroni (!!). Halep on the other hand had 2 QFs here (back in 2014 and 2015, where she lost to Cibulkova and Makarova), while the last two years saw her losing in the 1st round to Zhang and Rogers (both times priced under 1.20 fave).
The preview and bet aren’t based on past results here, but rather on the match-up. Halep leads by a comfortable 5-1 in the H2H department (4 hard courts, 1 inddor and 1 clay). Only loss came in Fed Cup, where Halep lost at home in Cluj-Napoca. This was a bad result, but to be fair everybody expected the hell out of that match and there was a huge pressure put by the crowd. The other 5 matches Halep won and Halep managed to win 10-1 in the sets department. Huge difference!
Halep came to the first Slam of 2017 after winning Shenzhen (10-2 in sets) without being even close to losing. In Australia she struggled a bit against Aiava in the 1st round, smashed Bouchard in the second, in the 3rd she won 15-13 in the 3rd set against Davis (saved 3 consecutive MPs on serve from 0-40 down), while in the 4th round she smashe Osaka too.
Pliskova came to Australia after a SF in Brisbane (lost to similar player as Halep – Svitolina, 7-5 7-5), while here in Australia she managed to get past Cepede in a rather difficult match, smashed Haddad Maia and then came the really hard matches. She defeated Safarova 7-6 7-5 breaking just once, while Strycova managed to win a set from her. The match against Strycova was intense and finished around 2AM Australian time. Strycova managed to get break up in the 3rd too but couldn’t keep the lead up.
Considering the match will be played in the afternoon tomorrow (AUS time), the temperature will be colder, while the ball will be slower. Pliskova is an attacking player for sure and can hit almost any player out of the court with her flat hitting … but we saw that Halep is a tough nut to crack for her. She can hit another and another ball into play, which will frustrate Pliskova into hitting lots of UEs. We saw Pliskova struggle to similar player as Halep in the past round, while Halep managed to smash similar player to Pliskova (Osaka – not same level, but still).
For me it is clear. Halep max-bet here. Only concern was about the left ankle injury she showed during the 1st round Aiava match … But we saw that was not important, as she could move perfectly in the next matches. I will bet on Halep to win @ 1.85.
Pick: Halep
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.50
Event date: 24 January
I am with you on Halep, already bet her. This is just FYI For Your Information.
It was a great morning for tennis as Wozniacki won her quarter-final match but also caught a break in Svitolina losing hers. Woz is now the favourite to win the title at +225 (3.25) and the pre-tournament wager on her at +1000 (11.00) has a very nice equity proposition looming. Her semi-final against Mertens does not start until early morning Thursday (Eastern Time) and mid-morning (UK time), so there is lots of time to act on the original position. Tonight, I am going to back Pliskova to beat Halep in their quarter-final match. Speaking with Dan yesterday (who many of you know and who I consider the best tennis trader on earth) and he was expecting Pliskova to be the favourite in this match. Perception in big events weighs heavy though. Pliskova went three sets and Halep took care of business quickly in two, and all of the sudden the betting markets are keen to back the world number one. Don’t be mistaken, this match is going to be very tough for Halep. Pliskova has a combined hold/break of 116% and is one of two players in the field which outdoes Halep at 115%. Fatigue for the favourite is lingering too. Even with the three-set win last time out, Pliskova has been on the court for 65 minutes less than Halep this tournament. The last thing Halep needs on a hurt ankle is to play a strong, calm and composed power server like Pliskova. The betting market is acting on H2H, world rankings, name value and recent form which is presenting value that can not be ignored on the underdog. I will act on the stats and on-court matchup and follow Dan in backing Karolina Pliskova at +108 (2.08).
Yep that is a competent analysis, but too much weight put on numbers and stats which aren`t that relevant in my opinion (in the sense that he`s comparing 116% with 115%, or an hour less on the court). Personally I tend to agree with Ardeal. My issue with the bet is that Halep (like most WTA players) is inconsistent.
I rest my case with this performance. Cheers.
FYI: I know the numbers. Match-up is far more important than stats. I know Dan, but I don’t fully agree with his approach to blindly follow value based on stats. Not my style.
it was a soft work for halep, halep seems unstoppable!!!!
Welldone! 🙂
great stuff, mate 🙂