Halep – Williams

Simona Halep and Serena Williams will meet on Sunday night in one of the most anticipated matches so far at the Australian Open.

Halep is coming after a 6-2 6-3 over Serena`s sister, Venus. It was the first easy match Halep had in Melbourne, as she struggled in the first two rounds against Kanepi and Kenin, coming from behind each time to win in three sets. Helep is playing well this week but she still seems to have some rust to shake off, having just returned from a 3 month layoff due to a disk hernia.

Serena Williams came back last year after giving birth, and straight away she made an impact, reaching the finals at Wimbledon and US Open, although she eventually lost both of those. This year Serena seems to be back at her usual self, playing extremely well in the start of the season. The American won all her matches in 2019, three in the Hopman Cup and three here at the Aussie Open. Williams defeated Maria, Bouchard and Yastremska this week without losing a set, and winning 5 of the 6 sets she played by a score of 6-2 or less.

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Serena Williams leads the H2H against Halep 8-1 (6-1 on hard courts). What`s more, Halep`s only win was kind of meaningless. It came in a group match of the 2014 Masters Cup (6-0 6-2), when there was something wrong with Serena and she wasn`t even trying. Days later Serena beat Halep in the final of that tournament 6-3 6-0.

It`s undeniable that Serena has a massive matchup advantage over the Romanian. Halep’s number one weapon is her defense and consistency from the baseline, but Serena’s massive power allows the American to break right through Halep’s barrage. That makes life almost impossible for Halep, as she is left with no solutions to counter Serena`s game. She`s just too small and there`s not much she can do against Serena, no matter how well she plays.

When you also consider that Halep isn`t in her best form, her chances become even slimmer. Halep is playing well, and showed excellent tennis in the important moments when she struggled in the first two rounds. But she`s not at her best. She`s coming after a big 6-2 6-3 third round win over Venus Williams, but she benefited by a very poor display by Serena`s sister. Venus was not in that match at all, and made no less than 33 (!!!) unforced errors in just 17 games, so Halep’s win was less impressive than it may look.

A case which could be made against Serena is that, for all of her dominant wins, she hasn`t met a quality opponent this week, and Halep will be a different test. But Serena did have a real challenge a few weeks ago in the Hopman Cup, when she was one set down against Bencic, with Bencic playing fantastic, and she came back to win it. That was a good test for Williams and will be useful for her coming into this match.

This match is in Serena`s racquet, and it`s hers to lose. She`s playing very well and she absolutely owns the matchup. Unless the American suddenly starts blowing errors all over the place (and there`s no reason to expect that), she should take care of Halep here, and she probably wouldn`t even need her “A game” to do it.

My tip is Serena to avenge her sister and win this clash against Halep. Odds are just good enough for me to play this as a high stakes singles bet, and the price might drop until game time. Prediction: Simona Halep – Serena Williams 4-6 2-6.

Pick: Williams
Odds: 1.44 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 3.96
Event date: 21 January