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South Africa will host Argentina in the first round of the 2017 Rugby Championship, with the two teams seemingly going in opposite directions right now.
South Africa had an absolute stinker of a year in 2016, which included a 3rd place finish in the Rugby Championship, humiliations at the hands of New Zealand, a loss to Argentina and a loss against Italy. The future did not seem bright, as the coaching staff and the squad selection were constantly put under scrutiny and for good reason. However, the Springboks have been surprisingly good in the June tests this year, beating France three times by 23, 22 and 23 points. Even if South Africa was at home and France was tired and not quite at full strength, the rebuilding Springboks looked solid.
Argentina’s decision to focus their efforts on club rugby has hindered their progress and for the first time in many years they seem to be going backwards. The Pumas weakened their squad by denying eligibility to key players which play abroad, and now the National team is basically identical to the Jaguares franchise – which had a poor season in Super Rugby. Argentina was not impressive in the June tests, losing twice at home to England “B”, and beating Georgia by just 16 points (albeit more clearly than the score suggests).
Bet on South Africa vs. Argentina and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet!Team news & lineups:
Coetzee made a controversial selection again for the Springboks, with a couple of key players being left out. Argentina continues to miss some of their best players, the most recent loss being Facundo Isa (who became ineligible due to his transfer in France).
South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Raymond Rhule, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Uzair Cassiem, 7 Jaco Kriel, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Ramiro Moyano, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Enrique Pieretto, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
The two H2H meetings in Rugby Championship last season were very close, with each team winning at home in the dying stages of the games. South Africa will feel they have the advantage this time though, and they don`t expect to require another last minute try to win their home game against the Pumas.
Truth is Argentina is not looking too good right now, they are basically the Jaguares franchise, which failed to qualify for the playoffs in Super Rugby – a competition in which South Africa’s top team, the Lions, reached the final. The Boks will have 7 Lions players in their starting lineup today.
But there are many questionmarks about South Africa as well, with their impressive wins in June coming against a tired French team which was missing some key players. Those wins are the only evidence that South Africa turned things around, and they might be overrated. The hosts continue to have a very poor, politically appointed coach in the form of Coetzee, so you can`t completely trust them just yet.
Fact is South Africa seems to be getting too much credit from the bookies in this match, considering the fact that they are coming after a horrific year, and their June wins have a big asterisk attached to them. Argentina, for all their faults, remain a strong side and their players have always been at their best at International level, so expect a better showing from them in the Pumas shirt than in the Jaguares one. They will be hurt by the absences of a few key players from abroad, but South Africa misses a few important guys as well.
The Springboks should win, but the 16,5 handicap line could be too much for them to overcome. South Africa hasn`t beaten Argentina by more than 16 points since early 2013, and 8 meetings have passed since then.
There`s also the fact that Jantjies is not the most reliable kicker for South Africa, while Argentina’s Sanchez is an excellent one, so that will make it even more difficult for South Africa to cover the spread if they let 3-5 easy points slip through their fingers. Argentina will likely not miss easy points.
My tip is Argentina to cover the 16,5 point handicap. Odds are dropping on this bet and line is moving towards 15,5. Prediction: South Africa – Argentina 29 – 19.
Pick: Argentina +16,5
Odds: 1.83 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 19 August
