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South Africa will host Argentina in Durban in the first round of the 2018 Rugby Championship.
The Springboks have finally fired the totally inept and politically appointed Allister Coetzee back in February after a couple of horrible years (considering their talent), and the results have been visible right away. South Africa played the first matches under new manager Rassie Erasmus a couple of months ago in June and they played some very good rugby in a three game home series against England – winning twice and losing once. The Boks will now have high hopes for at least a second place finish in the Rugby Championship, after finishing 3rd in the last two years.
After seeing steady progress in the last decade, Argentina seemed to take a step back last year with below average performances at both International and club level, and this season things got even worse. While their Super Rugby club franchise Jaguares (which is basically the Argentinian NT) had a good season, making the playoffs, the National team has been a complete and utter disaster. In the June test window Argentina had three home matches against the “B” sides of Wales (twice) and Scotland. They were expected to win them all, but instead were humiliated in each of the three tests by 13, 18 and 29 points. The performances were shocking from the Pumas (who played their best side) and as a result long standing coach Daniel Hourcade has been replaced by Mario Ledesma, who was the coach of the Jaguares.
Bet on South Africa vs Argentina and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet!Team news & lineups:
The South Africans should be even better than they were in the June tests, as they welcome back 4 key players (Marx, Etzebeth, Louw, Whiteley). Argentina also has a new key addition in Juan Figallo. Both teams have made some tweaks in their supposedly best lineups, particularly South Africa in the 11-14 area. All in all, both teams look good and ready to go, with no game changing absences.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Makazole Mapimpi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 André Esterhuizen, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Siya Kolisi (c), 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Bautista Ezcurra, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matias Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
Argentina has played worse and worse with each roundup in the last 18 months or so, they have been absolutely dreadful in the June tests this year, and it remains to be seen how much (and how quickly) the coaching change will improve the results.
Ledesma shouldn`t need too much time to implement his ideas though, given that he coached this same group of players this year with the Jaguares – their performance in Super Rugby being the only bright spot for Argentinian rugby recently. Making the playoffs was a solid achievement, but even that must be put into perspective. The Jaguares had a great start to the season, but faded away late, and ended up losing their last three matches of the season. Basically, everything about Argentinian rugby has been a disaster since June onwards.
South Africa was already seeing some improvements last year when they made a change of guard, and the progress has been accelerated by the appointment of Rassie Erasmus as coach at the start of 2018. Handre Pollard’s return at No.10 after a horrific which sidelined him for almost two years has also been a huge plus, as he has always been instrumental for the Springboks, while his replacement Elton Jantjies has been a continuous liability in his absence in 2016 and 2017.
The Boks are much more solid than Argentina right now and it`s hard to pinpoint even a single area of the game in which the Pumas are superior. The Boks can match them in the scrum, they have the better wide game (despite maybe lacking some experience in that area), they have a better kicking game and at the moment are also much less error prone and much more secure with the ball.
If the Pumas don`t get their act together quickly, this could get very ugly for them. But even with a sensible improvement (on which I am counting on), the Pumas are unlikely to trouble a much improved Springbok side in Durban.
Last year in the Rugby Championship South Africa beat Argentina by 22 points at home and by 18 points away, and that was a (much) weaker South African side, while Argentina was better.
Look for South Africa to be simply better, more dynamic, more powerful and less error prone. A 15.5 point spread should be well within South Africa’s reach here, so my tip will be the Boks to cover the spread. Prediction: South Africa – Argentina 39 – 16.
Pick: South Africa -15,5
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.30
Event date: 18 August
