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South Africa – Canada

South Africa Canada rugby world cup betting preview

South Africa will meet Canada on Tuesday in Pool B of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

After losing 13-23 to the mightly All Blacks in their first game, the Springboks bounced back in style with two massive wins against Namibia (57-3) and Italy (49-3). If the large gap over Namibia was expected, winning by 46 points against Italy was definitely not. Indeed, the Italians were handed a red card in the 43rd minute, when the score was 17-3, so in normal circumstances South Africa wouldn`t have won by that much. But it was still a very good all round performance by the boks.

Canada came into this World Cup in dreadful form, and chances are they wouldn`t have even qualified if not for the disqualifications of Romania and Spain in Europe. Either one of those two teams, or Russia, would have been in the requalification tournament together with Canada, instead of Germany – and you would have fancied at least Romania and Spain to defeat the North Americans considering how they have played lately. Canada did nothing to refute the expectations in this World Cup, being handed two blow out beatings by Italy (7-48) and New Zealand (0-63).

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Team news & lineups:

With just a 4 day turnaround since last Friday, New Zealand will shuffle the lineup here, making 13 chances to the lineup which beat Italy. Canada hasn`t played in 6 days, but will still make 6 changes to the lineup that was trashed by New Zealand.

South Africa: 15. Damian Willemse, 14. Warrick Gelant, 13. Damian de Allende, 12. Frans Steyn, 11. S’busiso Nkosi, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Cobus Reinach, 8. Francois Louw, 7. Kwagga Smith, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 5. Franco Mostert, 4. RG Snyman, 3. Vincent Koch, 2. Schalk Brits, 1. Thomas du Toit

Canada: 15. Andrew Coe, 14. Jeff Hassler, 13. Conor Trainor, 12. Ciaran Hearn, 11. DTH Van Der Merwe, 10. Peter Nelson, 9. Phil Mack, 8. Tyler Ardron (c), 7. Matt Heaton, 6. Lucas Rumball, 5. Kyle Baillie, 4. Evan Olmstead, 3. Jake Ilnicki, 2. Andrew Quattrin, 1. Hubert Buydens

This is not South Africa’s “A” lineup, but it`s good for the Boks that they will have fresh legs on the court. They have plenty of depth to deal with the changes, and the team looks similar to the one which took care of Namibia earlier in the tournament.

What more can be said about Canada? This team has been in heavy decline since the 2015 World Cup, and has not shown anything to change that impression in this competition. Their offense was impotent against Italy and New Zealand, while their defense has been like butter in front of a knife. If New Zealand wouldn`t have gone into cruise control in the 60th minute at 63-0 last week, who knows how much the difference would have grown in that game.

South Africa is sure to make light work of that Canadian defense, and the only question here is how large the gap will be.

Big handicaps have not been covered at all by the top teams in this competition against the minnows, so backing the Boks to do it might seem like I haven`t learned from the past. This has been bothering me, I admit, but it looks like the bookies adjusted too.

New Zealand was a 66,5 point favorite against Canada. The Boks were 58,5 point favorites two weeks ago against Namibia, which is actually looking better than Canada in this tournament. They won that by 54. You have to feel that this game would have had a similar line if it had been played earlier in the competition. I probably wouldn`t have backed South Africa at -60, for example.

But With the line at just 50,5 points, I have to go with the Springboks here. Another option would be the under (63,5), since it`s doubtful that the Canadians will score more than 3-4 points, which would mean it has value in relation to the handicap. But I wouldn`t be surprised if South Africa scores 60+, so I will stick with the spread. Prediction: South Africa – Canada 59 – 0.

Pick: South Africa -50,5
Odds: 1.91 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 8 October

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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