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South Africa will take on Namibia in Pool B of the 2019 Rugby World Cup on Saturday.
The Springboks lost 13-23 against New Zealand last weekend, a result which pretty much already decided that they will finish second in a group with the All Blacks, Italy, Namibia and Canada. Nevertheless, despite the loss, the Springboks remain one of the main contenders to win this World Cup. South Africa has been brilliant this year, winning the shortened Rugby Championship en-fanfare, and the Boks were pretty solid last week against the All Blacks as well – although they probably could have played better offensively.
Namibia will be happy with their display and with the result against Italy in their first match of the RWC. The Namibians lost 22-47 last Saturday, an honorable result against a superior team, and the 22 points scored were definitely not expected. However, it must be said that the Italians broke through the Namibian lines like a knife through butter, and they would have scored at least 20 more points if not for some shocking handling and passing errors in clear cut scoring positions. That lack of focus from Italy helped Namibia to keep the score respectable.
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South Africa has made 13 changes to the starting XV which took on the All Blacks, so this will basically be their second choice lineup. Shockingly, Namibia will also make 10 chances to their lineup compared to last week`s match against Italy.
South Africa: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Schalk Brits (c), 7 Kwagga Smith, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Namibia: 15 Johan Tromp, 14 Chad Plato, 13 JC Greyling, 12 Peter John Walters, 11 Lesley Klim, 10 Cliven Loubser, 9 Eugene Jantjies, 8 Adriaan Booysen, 7 Muharua Katjijeko, 6 Thomasau Forbes, 5 Tjiuee Uanivi (c), 4 Johan Retief, 3 AJ de Klerk, 2 Louis van der Westhuizen, 1 Desiderius Sethie
Namibia making 10 changes in their starting XV is extremely surprising, as they do not have the required depth to make this kind of rotation. Coach Phil Davies attempted to calm the waters by saying that his team has a rotation system in place which was used since the previous World Cup – suggesting this is not a weaker team than the one which took on Italy.
But that doesn`t seem completely accurate, as Namibia’s starting lineup misses 4-5 of the best players here, including three of their four French based player. It looks more like the Namibians are scared of their next match against New Zealand, which doesn`t make much sense considering South Africa’s strength. But it`s a fact that this is not the best available Namibian lineup.
These changes could prove very costly against the Boks. South Africa is a team which has not lost this year before last week`s defeat against New Zealand, a team which won the Rugby Championship and has found its best form at the right time, in a World Cup year. It`s a team which can murder you almost as effectively as the All Blacks.
Looking at all the changes Namibia made, and considering how easy the Italians broke their lines (runs of tens of meters virtually every few minutes), South Africa looks set for a huge win here. Namibia’s scrum was also a disaster against Italy, so look for a ton of penalties in favor of the South African scrum, and maybe even yellow cards for the Namibians, who are likely to resort to all kinds of illegalities in desperation.
The fact that the Boks will rest most of their first choice players is almost irrelevant considering the depth they have, and also the opponent.
The last H2H meeting took place at the 2011 World Cup, when South Africa won 87-0. The Toyota Stadium has a retractable roof in case of adverse conditions, so the South Africans should be able to play their game without worries if the weather is bad.
My tip here will be South Africa to cover the 58,5 point handicap. The line might seem high, but this is the most one sided match of the World Cup so far, and it might end up being the most one sided in the entire competition (either this one, or New Zealand vs Namibia). Prediction: South Africa – Namibia 71 – 3.
Pick: South Africa -58,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 28 September
