Spain – Germany

Spain and Germany will square off on Sunday in the European U21 Championship final, the match taking place at the Dacia Arena in Udine.

Spain has actually started the tournament pretty poorly, losing 1-3 to hosts Italy and struggling to defeat a modest Belgium side 2-1 via a last minute goal. But the Spaniards have been impressive since their found their footing in the last two matches. They drubbed Poland 5-0 in the last group game to claim qualification for the semifinals, where they played top football to ruin France 4-1.

Germany has been steady from the start in this Euro 21 championship, winning all matches aside from a 1-1 draw with Austria in their last group game – a match they didn`t need to win, and in which they didn`t step on the gas. The Germans defeated Denmark 3-1 and Serbia 6-1, drew with Austria 1-1, and went on to defeat a very solid Romanian side 4-2 in the semifinals (coming back from 1-2 down at half time).

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams have reported clean bills of health ahead of the final.

Spain U21: Sivera – Aguirregabiria, Vallejo, Mere, Martin – Ruiz, Roca – Olmo, Ceballos, Fornals – Oyarzabal

Germany U21: Nubel – Klostermann, Tah, Baumgartl, Henrichs – Neuhaus, Eggestein, Dahoud – Oztunali, Waldschmidt, Richter

This has been a very high scoring U21 championship, which is not necessarily surprising given the young age of the players. The tactical consistency and experience of covering the pitch is not as developed compared to senior football, so as a result teams have more room and spaces to work with.

Spain and Germany have been particularly attacking minded themselves. 7 of their 8 combined matches have ended with over 2,5 goals. The only one which didn`t was that 1-1 draw of Germany against Austria – a match in which Germany played with less aggressiveness given that they did not need the win.

There has been an average of 4.25 goals per game scored in Spain’s matches in this tournament. For Germany, the average number of goals scored in their games stands at 4.75 goals per game.

With these stats, odds of around 1.70 on over 2.5 goals definitely look tasty. And beyond the stats, it`s just the way these two teams play. It`s hard to see a low scoring game emerging from this matchup.

Of course, this is a final, so that must be taken into account. Finals are often tense and cagey affairs, and in fact these two sides also met in the last act two years ago, when Germany won 1-0.

But, overall, the way these two sides played in this championship, you would definitely expect at least three goals to be scored. The price on goals seems too high even for a final, so personally I`ll go with 10/10 stakes here. If you can`t find odds above 1.67-1.68, maybe I would decrease the stakes by 1 or 2 units. My tip will be over 2,5 goals. Prediction: Spain – Germany 2-2 (Germany wins at penalties).

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.73 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.30
Event date: 30 June