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Spain – Poland

Spain Poland basketball betting preview

Spain and Poland will square off on Tuesday in the second FIBA Basketball World Cup quarterfinal of the day.

Poland`s qualification for the quarterfinals is definitely a huge achievement, one which was not expected before the tournament. However, it`s fair to say that the Poles were helped by a favorable draw. They had a very easy preliminary group with China, Cote D’Ivore and Venezuela, in which they were clear favorites, and won all three games – although they needed overtime to get past China. Next, in the main group, they were expected to lose to both Russia and Argentina. Indeed, Argentina destroyed Poland 91-65, but the Poles got their one big win against a shorthanded Russia (79-74) to achieve qualification for the quarters.

Spain has been red hot so far in this tournament despite not quite having the same big expectations as in the past, mainly due to absences of key players like Pau Gasol, Ibacka, Mirotic or Rodriguez. Despite all these missings, Spain rallied around Ricky Rubio and Marc Gasol to win all 5 games rather comfortably. Only Italy got within 7 points of them, and Spain is coming after a huge victory against Serbia (81-69), the big favorite for the title along with USA.

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In all honesty, Poland should be no match for Spain here. While the Poles deserve respect for qualifying, they didn`t really impress aside from that victory against a shorthanded, struggling Russian side. The rest of their games were rather close wins against poor sides, and a heavy 26 point beatdown at the hands of Argentina.

It`s fair to say Poland is the weakest team in the quarterfinals, and that`s particularly true if you are talking about individual talent. Their main man Marcin Gortat is not playing in this tournament, and neither is his frontcourt partner Maciej Lampe. Poland has to rely on the Spanish league duo of Slaughter and Waczynski along with Zenit St Petersburg’s Pontika, who has been their best player so far. Besides them, most of the team plays in the Polish league.

As for Spain, the team has been really impressive so far even with all the missing players, and the main foundation has been the defense. Spain’s defense has been extraordinary, with no team being able to put 70 points on them – not even the mighty Serbia. They are holding opponents to less than 64 points per game in average.

Coach Scariolo actually highlighted Spain’s defensive mentality, insisting that good defense is not enough, and that the team needs “great defense” as its road map in this tournament. That is fair, since this Spain roster doesn`t quite have the usual offensive firepower and shooting touch.

Poland was held to 65 points by Argentina and you would expect them to struggle to hit the 60 point mark against Spain. On the other hand, Spain scored more than 81 points only once in this tournament (against Tunisia).

With the handicap line being set pretty high at 16 points, betting the under might be the best way to go. My tip will be under 150,5 points to be scored. Prediction: Spain – Poland 82 – 62.

Pick: under 150,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.65
Event date: 10 September

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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