Spain – USA

Spain and USA will square off in the semifinals of the Olympics Basketball tournament, with many pundits agreeing that this will be the true final of the competition. USA is favored to win with a 13,5 point spread.

Spain should not have had to face USA in the semifinals in Rio, but they failed to win their group after starting with two losses (by a combined 3 point margin) against Croatia and Brazil. They beat Nigeria by 9 in the following match and cince then, Spain found its groove and has been on a complete tear, beating Lithania by 50 (!!!), Argentina by 19 and France by 25 in the quarters. Since they got going, it has been fantastic basketball from Spain, who demolished some of the top teams in the tournament like Lithuania or France.

Team USA has not met expectations so far, despite winning all 6 matches they played – including a 27 point win against Argentina in the quarters. USA struggled in the group stages and was in danger of losing against Australia (won by 10), Serbia (won by 3) and France (won by 3, France without Parker). Those were pretty poor performances considering the talent level of team USA and they need to step it up against a team like Spain.

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USA’s struggles, though not major, have been alarming – but not really a surprise. This team is not quite their best. Not only are guys like Lebron or Curry not playing, but the entire selection has been questionable. The team is stacked with volume shooters who need the ball, it is not a balanced roster. There`s not much defense in there either, or perimeter shooting. Training has not been professional with just one week of camp. These issues were visible in USA’s matches in Rio, even if they eventually won them all.

Unfortunately for Spain they miss Marc Gasol in these Olympics. Serge Ibaka is also out, but that`s not a big problem as he was replaced by Chicago’s Mirotic (they couldn’t have been both in the squad due to rules against naturalized players). With Marc Gasol I truly think this Spain team could have had a real chance to beat USA, but they still do, especially given the way they played so far. Spain still has an excellent lineup with Rubio, Llull, Fernandez, Mirotic and Gasol, with plenty of current or ex NBA players on the bench (Calderon, Navarro, Rodriguez, Claver, etc.).

USA is much more athletic, younger and obviously more talented. But Spain has played better as a team in RIO, they have exceptional experience, a go to guy like Gasol and the FIBA rules in the Olympics are obviously an advantage. This Spanish side is stacked with talent and can beat USA on a good day.

I would not be shocked if Spain pulls off the upset, though I do expect team USA to treat this match with full focus, play much better than in the group stages and probably get the win. Even so, this Pau Gasol – led Spanish team should at least be able to keep it close.

The way this USA squad was put together, it is begging to be upset by somebody, but truth to be told they are still so much more talented than everyone else. While sheer talent may be enough to win them this semifinal and eventually the Olympic gold, I doubt it will be enough to allow an obliteration of this very competent, well balanced Spain team. My tip is Spain to cover a 14 point handicap. Prediction: Spain – USA 90 – 95.

Pick: Spain +14
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.37
Event date: 19 August