Wawrinka – Nishikori

The most evenly matched mens Australian Open quarterfinal will see Wawrinka take on Nishikori. It will be the second consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal between the two, after Nishikori won in 5 sets at the 2014 US Open.

Wawrinka is doing well so far in his quest to defend the Australian Open title, and the Swiss has pretty much played his best tennis here in Mellbourne. However, he did show inconsistency at times – almost losing a set to Copil and almost being forced to play a deciding set in his fourth round against Garcia Lopez. Stan eventually got the job done, but he will need a little more than that if he is to reach is second Grand Slam final – or at least semifinal.

I expected Nishikori to struggle in his fourth round against Ferrer, especially after losing a set against Dodig and a set against Johnson. I was proved wrong, as the Japanese came up with his best performance of the tournament, playing a flawless match against David, never really giving him a chance. It was one of the best matches ever for Nishikori, he was so sharp with his shots and there`s no reason to believe he will drop his level now in the semis.

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Wawrinka leads the Head 2 Head 2-1 (1-1 on hard), but the only meeting in the last two years was won by Nishikori at last years’ US Open in the same phase of the competition. It was a tough 5 setter, but Kei pulled it off. I don’t see any matchup advantage for any of the two players and I feel the Head 2 Head is somewhat irrelevant – no guy can say that his style does not suit his opponent.

The Swiss had 61 unforced errors in 4 sets last round against a guy like Garcia Lopez who does not really make you commit mistakes – that`s just not good enough for the Swiss and if he doesn`t improve his tennis he will lose this one. I have to go with Nishikori to win tonight, he is playing as good as he has ever played, look for him to outlast Wawrinka in rallies and that should really be the key to this match. Even if Stan does improve, Kei still has the first shot at the win as far as I`m concerned and seemingly I`m not the only one (not that I care), as the odds are dropping big time.

My tip is Nishikori to win. The over also looks good, but I`m more comfortable taking the Japanese, as the under / over line is pretty high at 41 games. A stake of 7 units seems reasonable for this bet. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Kei Nishikori 4-6 6-3 2-6 6-7.

Pick: Nishikori
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.39
Event date: 28 January