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Stan Wawrinka looks to reach his third Grand Slam quarterfinal this year when he meats Robredo in the US Open 4th round, but Tommy will surely be no pushover.
It has been a mixed season for Wawrinka. Of course, winning the Australian Open (also the Monte Carlo Masters) makes this the best year of his life, but besides these two tournaments and the Wimbledon quarter final his performances were rather poor. Stan lost a lot of times in the early rounds, proving he has yet to find the consistency to stay at the top despite winning a Grand Slam. His performance in the US Open series has been rather poor for his standards, losing to Anderson in the Toronto R16 and to Benneteau in the Cincinnati QF`s and did not play much better in the US Open either, getting a hard fought 3 set win over Vesely and an even tougher 4 setter against Bellucci, being in danger to play a deciding set. Stan had a bye in the 3rd round so he might suffer a little bit with rhythm early on but at the same time is set to be very fresh, which will be important against a Robredo who played a lot of tennis recently.
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Tommy`s 4 set win against Kyrgios was a joy to watch for any seasoned tennis fan and I don`t recall a match in which experience was so clearly the factor that made the difference. Kyrgios started the match in explosive manner, going up 5-0 in the first set (ended 6-3) and than almost getting a double break in the second set. He was hitting the ball so hard that people were actually starting to feel sorry for Tommy who looked questionable to get another 2-3 games until the end of the match – however, Robredo used all his experience and intelligence to slow the rhythm and force Kyrgios to lose that amazing momentum, eventually winning in 4 sets after playing some extraordinary tennis. The win backed up a fantastic period for Robredo, who previously defeated Djokovic, Kohlschreiber and Simon in the US Open series (also getting a QF showing at Cincinnati). Aside from the Kyrgios win, Robredo easily defeated Roger Vasselin in the 1st round and came back from a 0-2 deficit against Bolleli to win 3-2, a similar match to the Kyrgios one.
Robredo owns the H2H against Wawrinka, 6-2, but on hard/carpet he only leads 3-2 and Wawrinka defeated him in 3 sets this year at the Australian Open. I won`t say that Tommy has a matchup advantage but the H2H is not lying, he can use his consistent baseline play to frustrate an error-prone Wawrinka.
If Stan is at his best he will win this, but it`s really not looking likely that he will come up with his best tennis – hasn`t done so since early April, maybe excepting some stretches of brilliance at Wimbledon and he did not look in great shape so far at the US Open. Robredo is playing top class tennis at the moment, he may well be playing the best tennis of his career even though he`s 33 – few errors, fantastic angles, intelligence, good serving. Wawrinka does hold a crucial edge in fitness considering Robredo`s age and the long matches he played in the last 2 rounds, but Tommy will not have a handicap here – he is well known to be incredibly fit, similar to Ferrer, and he`s renowned for being able to play 2-3 consecutive five setters at the same level. Bottom line Wawrinka is rested and is the more talented player, but Robredo has most of the other arguments and he has a very good chance to produce an upset here. I`m also sold on the fact that he beat Federer in the same round last year and just defeated Djokovic at Cincy, so he can beat the top guys on the biggest stage.
My tip is Robredo to win, Pinny with the best odds again at this US Open – I won`t go with handicaps, I choose the best value for this bet. I was actually planning 6 units but I reckon the price is just too good and eventually I`ll go with a slightly higher bet. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Tommy Robredo 6-7 6-1 4-6 6-3 3-6.
Pick:Robredo
Odds: 2.84 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 12.88
Event date: 1 September
