Steaua – Dinamo

Steaua Bucharest and Dinamo Bucharest will square off in one of the most intense Romanian derbies in recent years, after Dinamo’s fans sabotaged Steaua’s tifo in their match against Manchester City a few days ago – tricking Steaua fans, incredibly, into creating a mosaic that read “Only Dinamo Bucharest”, in Dinamo’s red and white colors.

Steaua was obliterated by Manchester City earlier this week. Not only did Steaua lose 0-5 at home, but Manchester City also missed 2 penalties and hit the bar 4 times. Sure, the quality difference between the two sides was huge, but Steaua really played poorly, they looked like they were on drugs, at least in defense and as crazy as it my seem, they could have lost that game by 10 goals and it would have been a fair result. On the bright side, the team played well this season and remains the strong favorite to win the Liga 1 title.

Dinamo started the season in strong fashion with 4 wins and 1 draw in all competitions, scoring a lot of goals, as it was expected with new manager Ioan Andone. They are on the back of a 3-1 win against a mediocre Voluntari team, going up 3-0 in the first 20 minutes or so and then comfortably seeing the match out. The Red Dogs are looking pretty sharp right now, even though their squad badly lacks depth. But that will become a problem as injuries and suspensions pile up, not in the start of the season, with Andone having everybody healthy.

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Team news & lineups:

Steaua will miss Pintilii, Tosca and Golubovic – all first team regulars. Pintilii and Tosca are major blows, as they are currently ireplaceable in Steaua’s defensive setup. Dinamo has a full squad available and can field its best lineup.

Steaua: Nita – Enache, Tamas, Mitrita, Momcilovic – Muniru, Achim – Popa, Stanciu, Hamroun – Tanase

Dinamo: Branescu – Romera, Nedelcearu, Mevlja, Filip – Busuladzic, Palic, Hanca – Rotariu, Gnohere, Lazar

I said it over and over again this season, Dinamo’s matches present a fantastic opportunity in betting on goals – and that`s because of the style of the new manager, Ioan Andone, who plays very offensive football, but struggles to properly organized defenses.

Steaua will be out for blood in this match, looking to avenge the horrible day they had on Tuesday, both on the pitch and in the stands. Steaua utterly dominated Dinamo for a couple of years before last season, when they failed to win any of the 6 meetings against their rivals. Steaua will try to get back to winning ways against Dinamo and they will play offensive football, that is for sure. Last season 4 of the 6 meetings saw under 2.5 goals, but Dinamo had a much more defensive minded manager.

The last time I went with an over in a Dinamo match, based on mostly the same assumptions and it was a 10 unit losing bet after a 0-0 against CFR Cluj. But it was just an uninspired choice, as that was the only underish match Dinamo played this season! Their results so far are 4-1, 2-1, 0-0, 2-1, 3-1, so betting on goals would have produced great profit, especially with odds being rather high. I was and I am right suggesting betting on goals in Dinamo’s matches, at least results so far prove it.

My tip here is over 2,5 goals to be scored. We have Dinamo’s style of play, we have Steaua’s desire for revenge and their defensive missings. We also have the derby factor, which could weight against a high scoring game. But both managers stated that they want to win the match and will play attacking football. Some Steaua officials said that they are desperate to win big.

Chances are higher for the over than for the under, so the value is there and it’s pretty sensible. This should be a high scoring game and if it won’t, that will be a fluke. I`m estimating that 7 out of 10 games in these circumstances would finish with over 2.5 goals, so hopefully this will be one of those 7. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – Dinamo Bucharest 2-1.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.20 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.60
Event date: 20 August