Steaua – Ludogorets

Steaua Bucharest Ludogorets Razgrad betting previewOne of the tightest Champions League playoff ties will see Steaua Bucharest take on Ludogorets Razgrad, a massive game for both sides who would relish the money coming from Champions League.

Steaua suffered a managerial change in the summer and lost a couple of key players, so they were not expected to keep up the same tempo as in the last two seasons when they dominated Romanian football and got decent European results. However, the hosts are still winning games even under inexperienced manager Costel Galca. Steaua is 5 for 6 so far in domestic competitions and also won 3 out of 4 games in the Champions League qualies. Last time out the defeated Pandurii Tg Jiu 6-0 on the back of six (!!) goals by Claudiu Keseru. The Romanians still have a good squad and are getting results, but it has to be said that they have not been tested yet and looked really shaky at times. The level of opposition in Romania is weak and the only good team they met (Astra) won the Supercup at penalties over them. In the Champions League qualies, they struggled against a very poor Aktobe side, winning 2-1 at home after a 2-2 draw away.

Ludogorets has emerged as the best Bulgarian team in the last couple of years. They are dominating the domestic competition in the same style as Steaua, and are on the back of a 2-0 win against rivals CSKA Sofia, winning easily despite resting most key players. In the last round of the Champions League the Bulgarians knocked out Partizan via away goals after 2 draws. Ludogorets made a real impact in Europe last season, reaching the last 16 of the Europa League after knocking out Lazio, beating PSV Eindhoven along the way as well – they went on to lose to Valencia. All in all they are a good side, but still have their shortcomings and this could be seen no more than 1 month ago – they had a very poor start to the season, losing to Haskovo or drawing to Dudelange, but recovered and are playing closer to their potential right now.

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Team news & lineups

Steaua will miss key midfielder Tanase and new signing Luchin, along with backup striker Lemnaru and fringe player Matei. New signing Breeveld will probably not play either. Ludogorets has no injuries or suspensions.

Steaua Bucharest: Arlauskis – Luchin, Varela, Szukala, Latovlevici – Prepelita, Sanmartean – Popa, Stanciu, Chipciu – Keseru.

Ludogorets Razgrad: Stoyanov – Caicara, Aleksandrov, Moti, Angulo – Dyakov, Zlatinski – Aleksandrov, Marcelinho, Abalo – Bezjak.

The odds on Ludogorets are going down and I agree that they do have a slight edge here. Steaua did not meet opponents of Ludogorets quality this season while the Bulgarians have been tested by Partizan. With a couple of very good south americans in the lineup, Ludogorets arguably has more talent than the Romanians. They have a top class striker in Bezjak who is able to punish Steaua if given space to work with (which he will likely get). While I do not put much emphasis on friendlies, it has to be said that Ludogorets won against Steaua 4-2 in the preseason and should have won by an even bigger margin. Steaua is a very strong team at home but I will take a calculated risk here and tip Ludogorets to win with +0 asian handicap (draw no bet). I reckon they are the slightly better team, are better prepared for this match, healthier, and Steaua will suffer because they did not face top opposition so far. At these odds the bet is worth the risk. It was a similar situation for the Romanians last year in the Champions League playoffs when they met Legia Warszaw – the match ended 1-1, but Steaua was stronger back then. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – Ludogorets Razgrad 0-1.

Pick: Ludogorets (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.56 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.48
Event date: 19 August

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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