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Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin will square off in the ATP Marseille final. This is an ATP 250 tournament played on hard indoor.
Tsitsipas had a smooth road to the final, defeating Hurkacz, Stakhovsky and Goffin in straight sets. It wasn`t much of a draw for the Greek sensation, except Goffin, but Goffin hasn`t been in great form this year. Nevertheless, Tsitsipas did the job professionally and played well to reach this stage. The most impressive thing is that Tsitsipas faced a single break point all tournament (which he was not able to save, against Goffin).
Kukushkin has been in spectacular form from start to finish in this tournament. The Kazakh cruised through a very tricky draw, winning all his matches in straight sets despite very difficult opposition: Kudla, Shapovalov, Rublev and a red hot Humbert. Kukushkin allowed just one set to go above 6-4 (a tiebreak against Shapovalov) and, quite honestly, looked unstoppable this week.
Bet on Tsitsipas v Kukushkin and claim your 100% (120 Eur) freebet at LSbet now!Speaking about the matchup analysis, the H2H stands at 2-0 for Tsitsipas (1-0 on hard courts), both meetings taking place last year. Still, we can`t talk about a matchup advantage for Tsitsipas, as both matches needed a deciding set, with Kukushkin being very competitive each time despite being the (much) less fancied player.
Kukushkin is the kind of player which, when he gets going, is almost unstoppable. The Kazakh is rarely able to put together consistent performances in a row, but when he does, he can mix it up with the best of them. Proof of that are his heroics in the Davis Cup over the years against higher ranked players.
Kukushkin does have a 3-34 record against Top 10 players, which is poor and kind of contradicts the previous paragraph, but that is because he rarely finds his best form.
This week Kukushkin has been exceptional, playing his best tennis consistently in all matches. Just look at the caliber of players he defeated without blinking: an in form Shapovalov, Rublev, and a Humbert who was playing the tennis of his life.
There has been value all week on Kukushkin and I reckon there is some value to be taken on him again in this final. Tsitsipas has been very solid himself, he`s playing very well and is serving exceptionally on this fast Marseille surface, but Kukushkin in this kind of form is a dangerous opponent for anybody.
Tsitsipas deserves to be the favorite, but surely Kukushkin has a shot if he continues to play at the same level as in his previous matches. The Kazakh was consistent all week, he is in rhythm, so there`s no reason to expect a letdown from him.
My tip will be Kukushkin to cover the +4 game handicap. I highly recommend taking the +4 or the +4.5 handicap here. If you can only find the +3.5, I would only take that with low stakes.
I`m going with “only” 6 units on this bet not because I don`t trust it enough, but because honestly I am more concerned with the rugby match as my bet of the day, and I don`t want to risk too much of the potential profit from there. Also, Tsitsipas deserves respect, so all in all I am reluctant to invest more than medium stakes here. Hopefully we will profit on the value which has been on Kukushkin all week in Marseille. Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas – Mikhail Kukushkin 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Kukushkin +4
Odds: 1.83 @ 18Bet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 4.98
Event date: 24 February
