Stormers – Chiefs

The Cape Town Stormers (South Africa) will meet the Hamilton Chiefs (New Zealand) in the quarterfinals of the Super Rugby championship. The tie will be played over a single leg. The Stormers get to host the quarterfinal due to particular Super Rugby rules, despite finishing 14 points behind their opponents in the regular season.

The Stormers finished second in the South African group with 10 wins in 15 matches and are riding a 3 match winning streak, so they will be coming into this quarterfinal clash at home with very good morale. They will also draw confidence from the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-26 at the same venue earlier in the season, although they will still remember the 21-60 drubbing the Chiefs gave them at the same quarterfinal stage last season – also at the same venue.

The Chiefs finished 4th in the (much) stronger Australasian group, but they lost just 2 out of 15 games (compared to Stormers’ 5) and won 14 more points than today`s opponents. The visitors are riding a 3 match winning streak themselves and they will be hopeful coming into this match given the all star talent they have at their disposal.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams get some players back from injury / rest and there aren`t notable fresh injuries or suspensions. Each side will field the strongest available lineup.

Stormers: 15 SP Marais, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 EW Viljoen, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Solomon Alaimalo, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Stephen Donald, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (cc), 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Sam Cane (cc), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Mitchell Brown, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Kane Hames

Looking at the two lineups you have to feel that the Chiefs have plenty more talent than the Stormers, with all star New Zealand Internationals in their ranks like Cruden, Retallick, Lienert-Brown, Cane or the influential McKenzie.

Not only are the Chiefs the better side, but they are one of the best road teams in Super Rugby, having lost just once in 7 meetings away from home this season – however, that happened against the Stormers.

The South Africans won that game due to dominating the scrum and imposing their power, something which seemed to catch the Chiefs off guard at that time. The visitors stated that they now know how to counter that game – and if they do, their superior wide game should be more than enough for a victory.

The Stormers are traditional chockers at this stage of the competition, having lost 7 of the 8 playoff matches they played, and facing a team like the Chiefs does not inspire optimism to break that trend. Last year the Chiefs destroyed the Stormers 60-21 in the quarterfinals.

Come playoff time the Chiefs should prove their superiority and win this. Look for the visitors to be more explosive in classic New Zealand fashion, create havoc on counter attacks and score more easily than the Stormers.

Overall I struggle to see the Stormers overcoming the talent and speed of the visitors. Their win in the previous meeting this year helps secure us better odds for a bet on a Chiefs victory – as I feel the price would be around 1.50 if not for that Stormers win in the regular season.

My tip here is Chiefs to win, I`m avoiding the point spread as I feel the odds on the straight victory are good enough. Prediction: Stormers – Chiefs 23 – 29.

Pick: Chiefs
Odds: 1.69 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.21
Event date: 22 July