Sweden – Belarus

Sweden will host Belarus at Friends Arena in the World Cup 2018 qualifying Group A.

Sweden has navigated the post Euro 2016 rather well, despite the fact that they had to deal with guys like Isaksson, Kallstrom, Wendt and most of all Ibrahimovic retiring from the national team. The hosts are currently 3rd in Group A behind France and Netherlands, gaining 7 points in 4 matches – a pretty decent statline if you considered that they played both Netherlands (1-1) and France (1-2).

Belarus claimed a surprising 0-0 draw against France in this group but that was about it for them, as they were poor in matches against Netherlands (1-4), Bulgaria (0-1) and Luxembourg (1-1). They were much better in friendlies, but those do not count for much, obviously. Scoring goals continues to be a big challenge for this Belarussian team and that might be a bit of a problem against a good defensive team like Sweden.

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Team news: Olsson and Guidetti are the big absences for Sweden, while Belarus doesn`t have important players like Kornilenko, Hleb, Krivets and Bardachow in the squad for various reasons.

Sweden’s total dependency on Ibrahimovic to score goals created the expectations that they will struggle without him, but Sweden has been just fine since Euro 2016, arguably looking even more dangerous up front.

The hosts have been solid so far in this group, drawing with Netherlands and narrowly losing to France after leading in the second half, playing good football in both of those matches. They took care of Luxembourg and Bulgaria with a 4-0 combined scoreline in their other two matches.

Sweden knows that in a group with France and Netherlands, any hiccup at home against Belarus will probably cost them qualification, so expect them to treat this match with full focus. Depending on how well Sweden plays they could make it easy or hard on themselves, but either way they should have enough to get the win.

My tip is Sweden to cover the -1 asian handicap. They scored in every match in this group, against better teams, so I can see them getting 2 or 3 here against rather weak opposition. That should allow them to win by more than one goal against a team which has problems finding goals.

The asian handicap looks like a reasonably safe bet with a pretty good potential return of investment. Prediction: Sweden – Belarus 2-0.

Pick: Sweden (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.01 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.07
Event date: 25 March