Steph – Lebron

Team Stephen will play Team Lebron on Sunday night, in the first NBA All Star Game to be played under the new format. Steph Curry and Lebron James were elected as captains and each one of them had to pick their teams from the rest of the All Stars.

Team Steph will feature a starting 5 of Steph Curry, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.

Team Lebron will feature a starting 5 of Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis. Lebron`s roster suffered 4 injuries (Love, Cousins, Wall and Porzingis), who were replaced by George, Drummond, Dragic and Walker.

Team Lebron does look a little bit stronger on paper, although that` debatable after the recent injuries. Lebron chose a physical team, while Steph`s roster is full of deadly sharpshooters (which might be enough to steal the win considering today`s style of play in the NBA).

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The NBA All Star Game has become an exhibition of offense, threes and dunks in the last few years, with defense becoming virtually non existent. Since 2008, the points total scored in the All Star game has increased every year (2013 being the only exception), to the point that it saw a total of 374 points last year!

Bets on over (total points) have been very successful in the last few All Star Games and I myself posted successful “overish” predictions in the last two years. However, things might change this time around.

The new format with team captains has been implemented specifically to create more competitiveness in the All Star Game, as fans and media were becoming increasingly disappointed with the lack of intensity and defense. What`s more, the players themselves acknowledged that the showcase of offense with no defense has become boring, and that things needs to change.

Just two days ago LeBron James said, clearly and on video, that everybody needs to do a better job at defending and that this All Star game must be different.

With these facts in mind, the under looks like the bet to take this time around. The bookies obviously took the facts into account and the line is set at just 338.5 points, but that is still only 14 points lower than it was set last year, when it was around 352.5. You have to feel that it should have been set even lower, but the bookies just can`t do that, because they have to take the recent results into account – although they are rather misleading given the current circumstances. As such, there might be great value to be taken here.

Chances are that we won`t see anywhere near the 374 points that were scored last year, otherwise the players and the league will be called out as being blatant liars. While it won`t be a “real” game with “real” defense, it should be a much more intense and serious All Star Game, with both teams trying to compete and win.

I anticipate around 310 points being scored here, so I will invest high stakes on the under 338.5 points bet. While 9 units may seem like a lot to invest on an exhibition game, there are unique circumstances here, which I feel create very good value. I wouldn`t be surprised if the line drops. Prediction: Team Steph – Team Lebron 157 – 152.

Pick: under 338,5 points
Odds: 1.93 @ 10Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.37
Event date: 18 February