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Timisoara Saracens will host Stade Francais on Saturday afternoon in the 5th round of the Rugby Challenge Cup Pool 5. This is pretty much a dead rubber, as Timisoara already knows they will finish last, while Stade Francais` chances to qualify are virtually zero.
There were talks about the match being postponed due to bad weather and poor pitch conditions, but eventually the match will take place.
Timisoara have made a fool of themselves so far in this competition, losing all 4 games with a point differential of 23 – 203. They scored just 6 points in the last 3 matches (!!!) and lost 75-3 at Harlequins in the previous round – albeit they played the entire match with 14 men, after Morrison was sent off in the first minute. The Romanian Champions are obviously the weakest team in the group but even so they were expected to do a bit better and score a few more points. Their best match was away at Stade Francais, where they lost 27-0.
Stade Francais has 2 wins and 2 losses in Pool 5 and they can still finish second, but as far as qualification goes, that is pretty much lost (not all second placed teams qualify). While Stade Francais is a much better side than Timisoara, they are weaker than Edinburgh and Harlequins, the other teams in this group. The visitors also have a poor season in the French Top 14, where they are on the 10th place after 16 rounds.
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Timisoara has a few injuries, most notably ex-captain Burcea, but they get back their best player Fercu. As for Stade Francais, they will field a second string lineup here, resting most of their first choice players.
Timisoara Saracens: 15. Catalin Fercu, 14. Madalin Lemnaru, 13. Brian Sefanaia, 12. Jack Umaga, 11. Stephen Shennan, 10. Jody Rose, 9. Valentin Calafeteanu, 8. Vasile Rus, 7. Dorin Lazar, 6. Daniel Gabriel Ianus, 5. Marian Drenceanu, 4. Valentin Popirlan (c), 3. Horatiu Pungea, 2. Andrei Radoi, 1. Edmund Aholelei
Stade Francais: 15. Djibril Camara, 14. Julien Arias, 13. Waisea Vuidarvuwalu, 12. Théo Millet, 11. Josaia Raisuqe, 10. Herman Meyer Bosman, 9. Clement Daguin, 8. Willem Alberts, 7. Patrick Sio, 6. Sylvain Nicolas, 5. Pascal Papé (c), 4. Mathieu De Giovanni, 3. Giorgi Melikidze, 2. Laurent Panis, 1. Zurabi Zhvania
This is Timisoara’s final chance to salvage some pride in this competition, as they will probably lose big again in their last match at Edinburgh. This game with Stade Francais was always targeted as Timisoara’s best shot to stay close and maybe get a defensive bonus point. Stade Francais was the only approachable opponent for Timisoara in this group both in terms of quality and in terms of playing style – as Romanian teams tend to do well against the French style of Rugby, as it was seen in the previous meeting between these two.
The circumstances in which this match will be played could not be better for the Romanians.
Stade Francais will rest its best players – none of the guys that started in their last league match will be in the first XV in Romania. The visitors obviously still have much more quality than Timisoara, but fact is they will pretty much play the “B team” in this match.
What’s more, the weather conditions and the pitch favor Timisoara big time. I don`t see Stade Francais putting in their best effort on a freezing cold weather in Eastern Europe, on a frozen pitch. Timisoara on the other hand is familiar with the conditions and for them this will be the match of the season.
This is a golden chance for Timisoara to do something in this competition and the handicap line is definitely way too high at 26,5 points. It`s no surprise that odds are dropping like crazy and the line is moving down.
Stade Francais beat Timisoara by 27 points in France, on a good pitch and in good weather, with Stade Francais fielding a stronger team and being more motivated. Timisoara actually deserved to score some points in that game (almost had a late try) and Stade Francais did not quite deserve to win by as much as 27 points.
Look for a physical, ugly rugby game, with both teams seeking penalties in these weather and pitch conditions. It`s hard to see Stade Francais scoring tries at will on this pitch, especially facing an ultra motivated Timisoara team.
While Timisoara misses a few players and the hosts have been unreliable so far (these are hard facts), I still think the value on the handicap line is too big to let it slip without investing maximum stakes – so I will take that risk. My tip is Timisoara Saracens to cover the 26,5 point handicap. Prediction: Timisoara Saracens – Stade Francais 6 – 18.
Pick: Timisoara +26,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 14 January
