Berdych – Murray

Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray will both know they need to bring their A game if they are to reach the Australian Open final, as both guys are simply brilliant right now and any dip in level from one player would surely mean a loss.

I can hardly remember when Berdych played so well, the guy has been fantastic so far in the tournament. Tomas started the year strong with a final at Doha, which he surprisingly lost to Ferrer, but is playing even better in these last two weeks – did not lose a single set and blew Nadal off the court in the quarterfinals – a massive achievement considering that Tomas was on a 17 match losing streak against Rafa. He did it with his vintage brand of tennis, serving lights out and hitting big forehands, but they key was the low number of unforced errors.

Murray had an easy time against Kyrgios in the quarters, winning in straight sets and will feel that he had a great preparation ahead of this match with Berdych, a similar type of player. Andy lost a set this tournament against Dimitrov, but was overall very solid – surely back at the level he had before the 2013 back surgery. He does seem a little passive at times, showing less offensive initiative than he did when he was coach by Ivan Lendl, but it`s working great so far for him.

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Tomas Berdych leads the H2H 6-4, including winning the last two meetings, but the Head 2 Head is a little bit misleading here. He won a couple of matches before Andy emerged as a top contender and Murray actually leads the Head 2 Head 4-2 on hard courts / carpet. A particular advantage for Berdych will be the fact that his new coach, Dani Vallverdu, was in Murray`s staff until last year. Andy started the mindgames by saying Vallverdy makes Berdych a favorite in this match.

I remember an extremely similar match-up two years ago in the US Open semifinals, when Berdych was playing the tennis of his life and was looking unbeatable – Murray however broke him down and won easily in 4 sets. I expect more or less of a similar scenario here at the Australian Open. Listen, Tomas is playing great, but he did not meet absolute top opponents aside from Rafa and Rafa was way worse than I expected him to be, clearly not even close to his usual level. The fact that Berdych lost to Ferrer in Doha despite looking as good as he looks now is a worrying sign for him. I`m confident that Murray`s baseline game and consistency will steadily break down Tomas and will make him play much worse than he has done so far.

Andy hardly put a foot wrong in this tournament and we know he`ll bring at least the same level for the semifinals, it should be more than enough for a win against Tomas, probably in 4 sets. I don`t think coach Vallverdu can have enough of an impact to make a difference. My tip is Andy Murray to win. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Andy Murray 6-3 4-6 6-7 4-6.

Pick: Murray
Odds: 1.73 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.57
Event date: 29 January