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The experienced Czech Tomas Berdych takes on young gun Dominic Thiem from Austria in the US Open 4th round.
Berdych was particularly poor in the last couple of months, I watched a lot of his games and he was nowhere near his best. Tomas did not manage to produce his powerful, consistent baseline play, he lacked the usual aggressiveness in his shots, no forehand bombs, the serve was not effective – watching Tomas you couldn`t help but get the felling he did not eat in the morning. His pre-US Open campaign was horrific, winning just 2 out of 5 matches and continuing this bad strech which has lasted since the start of the clay court season. Here at US Open he defeated Hewitt in 3 sets, Klizan in 5 sets and Gabashvili in 3 sets – the results are not too impressive, especially considering that Hewitt was well off pace, and Tomas is not looking much better than he did in the last few months. However, his Grand Slam experience and overall quality make him a contender, no doubt about that.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Thiem had a breakout year this season and posted some excellent results (most notably beating Wawrinka in Madrid and taking a set from Murray in Rotterdam). Still, the Austrian has also showed a lot of inconsistency and lost both games in the US Open series so far, a really poor showing by him. But Dominic found his best tennis again at Flushing Meadows and reached the 3th round after an impressive 5 sets win over Gulbis and an even more impressive 3 set win over Feliciano Lopez, an in-form and similar player to Berdych (strong serve, strong forehand).
The H2H is 0-0, the two never met before on tour. I can`t say anybody holds a matchup advantage, maybe just that Thiem had good test against Berdych-like tennis players (Gulbis, Lopez), but Tomas is much more seasoned at this level so that will help him alot.
Experience is such a big factor in Grand Slams but even so I feel odds of 1.25 for Berdych are a joke. Tomas is clearly not at his best and he meets a young, hungry and talented player who is playing the best tennis of his life and has the ability to take on Top 10 players. Thiem will surely make this interesting, he`s more consistent right now and his angles will frustrate a Berdych who for some reason is just not finding his game. Maybe Tomas will improve a little bit in the 4th round and his experience will help him win this, but I`m not sold on that and I expect Thiem to have his chances. The handicap line looks pretty good at +5 so that will be my tip – Thiem to cover the +5 game handicap. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Dominic Thiem 7-6 3-6 6-2 6-7 6-7.
Pick:Thiem (+5 game handicap)
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.32
Event date: 2 September
