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Toronto Raptors will host Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern conference finals, with Cleveland leading the series 2-1 and rated as big favorites to make it 3-1 in this Game 4.
Raptors lost the first two games in Cleveland by 31 and 19 points, looking absolutely dreadful, as it seemed Cleveland wasn`t even trying that hard at times. Toronto finished 2nd in the Eastern Conference, they and Cleveland were by far the best teams, but Toronto was always underrated due to not having superstar power and I suspect them being from Canada also had something to do with it. Raptors pulled off two 4-3 victories against Indiana and Miami, not super impressive and looked horrible in the first two matches against Cleveland, but pulled off a win at home in Game 3.
Cleveland swept both Atlanta and Detroit before taking a dominant 2-0 win against the Raptors. With Cleveland playing some great basketball and shredding Toronto in the first two games, it looked increasingly likely that the Cavs will reach the finals without losing a single game. However, they played by far their worst match of the playoffs in Game 4, losing by 15 points in Toronto. Cleveland simply did not show up, with almost all players having bad nights.
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Everything and I mean everything went Toronto`s way in Game 3. Irving and Love shot a combined 4 from 28 from the field for the Cavs, that`s less than 15%! It will definitely not happen again anytime soon, if ever. Lebron had a pedestrian night and Cavs shot just 35% from the field. At the same time, Toronto shot 45% from the field and almost 40% from three point range, with stars Lowry and DeRozan shooting a combined percentage of over 50%. Percentages were actually even higher, but dropped in the 4th quarter when Toronto was already in control. They hit last second long threes to end quarters, Biyombo had 26 (!!!) rebounds.
The kind of stats presented above do not happen too often and despite all these, Raptors won a rather close game, with Cavs being in it most of the time, cutting the lead to 5 in the third quarter and staying withing single digits for most of the 4th quarter. Cavs could not have played any worse, while Toronto could not have played any better – or at least their two stars, Lowry and DeRozan, will most likely not play as well at the same time in Game 4 and they are the barometer for Toronto’s level.
If Toronto still had small trouble in winning a game which went their way from start to finish, I can`t see how they could pull off a win in Game 4. Cavs can not play as worse as they did in Game 3 and you can expect at least 15-20 more points from Love and Irving, while the Raptors are unlikely to shoot as well as they did from three. Biyombo’s big night anihilated Cleveland’s game plan of driving to the rim, which was so successful in the first two games in absence of Toronto’s starting center Valanciunas. But Biyombo is a limited player and it would be a huge surprise if he gets anywhere close to that performance anytime soon – let alone for a second night in a row. Valanciunas is listed doubtful for Game 4, but he is expected to miss out, or play ultra limited minutes at best.
I expected lower odds for the Cavs today, but it seems that Toronto’s 15 point Game 3 win forced the bookies to finally rate them accordingly, as they have been underestimated all season. However, this time they should lose. For me, Cleveland’s loss in Game 3 was actually a sign of how dominant this team is over the Raptors, as they played a horrible game, Raptors played great and Cleveland still had a shot to come out on top. My tip is Cleveland to cover the point spread. Prediction: Toronto Raptors – Cleveland Cavaliers 90 – 100.
Pick: Cleveland -5
Odds: 1.84 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 23 May
