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Second seed Toronto Raptors and third seed Miami Heat will square off in the Eastern Conference semifinals, with Toronto hosting Game 1 as a 1.50 and 4,5 point spread favorite.
Toronto lost Game 1 at home against the Pacers in the last round, but seemed to be in control after that despite not playing particularly well for most of the series. They won 4-3 despite exceptional performances from Indiana’s Paul George and proved why they have been one of the Top 2 teams in the Eastern Conference this season. Lowry and DeRozan were not always up to standards, but team ball won the series for Toronto.
Miami caught the 3rd seed mostly due to chance, as the teams placed from 3rd to 6th in the Eastern Conference had the same record and it was overall a very close race for the playoffs from 3rd to 10th. With Crish Bosh injured (still out indefinitely), Miami relied heavily on Dwayne Wade’s heroics to defeat Charlotte 4-3 in the first round. They lost Game 5 at home and fell behind 2-3 going to Charlotte, but managed to steal a win on the road and closed the deal at home with a 33 point win, by far their best performance in these playoffs. It will be difficult for them to repeat such a performance tonight.
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Toronto played rather poorly against Indiana but they still claimed the 4-3 series win, a testament to their quality. Miami is arguably better than Indiana, but they do not match up so well against Toronto. The Raptors lost the first game of the season against Miami, but won the next three by 8 or more points.
I think Miami is a beat overrated in this game and in this series. They own a big name and are always in the center of attention, while Toronto is always overlooked and considered a small ball club – still not taken seriously despite the fact that, among with Cleveland, they were a step above all other Eastern Conference sides this season. Sure, NBA bettors know all this, but it does contribute to Toronto having a bit higher odds than normal, along with Miami’s excellent performance in Game 7 against Charlotte.
Fact is that Raptors are a better team and should be able to do the job at home here in Game 1. Miami without Chris Bosh relies too heavily on Wade and Dragic to score and they often looked incapable offensively against an unimpressive Charlotte team that did not have its best shooter (Batum) healthy. If DeRozan and Lowry have a solid game, Toronto should win this by 10+, but I believe that they’ll cover a small spread even if they play a more pedestrian game.
Home court will be very important in this series and I can see the Raptors starting strong in Game 1 in Canada. My tip is Toronto to cover a 4 point spread. Prediction: Toronto Raptors – Miami Heat 100 – 92.
Pick: Raptors -4
Odds: 1.87 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 3 May
