Toulon – Newcastle

Toulon Newcastle Champions Cup preview

RC Toulonnais will host Newcastle Falcons at Stade Mayol in the opening round of the European Rugby Champions Cup. The two teams will compete in Pool 5, alongside Montpellier and Edinburgh.

Toulon had a very poor start to the season considering the very high standards of the club. The hosts are currently just above the relegation zone in the French Top 14 with just two wins in 7 matches. Even if the schedule was difficult for Toulon, that is not an excuse for such a bad start. The hosts will try to get back to winning ways today in the Champions Cup, and will be confident of doing so against the Falcons.

Newcastle will play in the Champions Cup for the first time since 2005, but they aren`t fancied at all to advance from such a difficult group. What`s even worse for the Falcons, their results this season have been disastrous. They had a couple of good games here and there but they are dead last in the English Premiership, claiming only 1 win in 6 games. Last week they lost 7-20 at Sale Sharks, a relegation rival which stands just above them in the standings.

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Team news & lineups:

Toulon`s lineup looks good ahead of this clash, the bench is strong as well, and there are no new injuries. Newcastle on the other hand has suffered a number of injuries this week, with guys like Welch, Flood or Goneva. Some other changes have been made, and this will not exactly be the strongest Newcastle lineup.

Toulon: 15 Daniel Ikpefan, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Anthony Belleau, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Eric Escande, 8 Raphael Lakafia (c), 7 Stephane Onambele Mbarga, 6 Jean Monribot, 5 Romain Taofifenua, 4 Swan Rebbadj, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Jean Baptiste Gros

Newcastle Falcons: 15 Alex Tait, 14 Tom Arscott, 13 Tom Penny, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Sinoti Sinoti, 10 Joel Hodgson, 9 Michael Young, 8 Nemani Nagusa, 7 Gary Graham, 6 Mark Wilson (c), 5 Glen Young, 4 Will Witty, 3 David Wilson, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 Sami Mavinga

Both teams had poor starts to their domestic seasons, but Toulon is competing in a more difficult league, and at least is not on the last place in the standings like Newcastle. Not to mention Toulon also had a nightmare schedule, playing against 4 of the Top 5 teams in France and 4 times out of 7 away from home.

The hosts are clearly the better team and their starting lineup looks scary good with some world class names in there. Toulon also plays at Stade Mayol and they have always been absolute beasts at home (like most French clubs).

On top of all, Newcastle comes into this match shorthanded. They have been hit by a few injuries and also made some changes in the lineup. The absences will be difficult to overcome against a strong side like Toulon.

When you consider that the visitors are one of the worst teams in this competition anyway, their poor form and missing players become real issues. Toulon will lick their fingers for having this match as their Champions Cup opener.

Toulon will try to score as much as possible in order to earn a crucial bonus point (failing to do so would already put them in a tricky situation in the group), but also to build morale. My tip will be Toulon to cover the 16,5 handicap. Prediction: Toulon – Newcastle Falcons 35 – 11.

Pick: Toulon -16,5
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 14 October

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. I am interested whats this line should be to your estimation

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