Toulouse – Wasps

Toulouse will host Wasps in the second round of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 1, with the two teams coming after totally opposite results and performances in the 1st round.

Stade Toulousain was horrible last week against Connacht, losing 23-21 despite leading 21-11 at half time. The French side only had 10-20 minutes when they played quality rugby and scored most of their points, but they were so poor in the rest of the game, always on the back foot and making mistake after mistake when they had the ball. The result could have been worse. Toulouse is currently 6th in the French Top 14 with 4 losses and 4 wins, they are not looking to good right now.

Wasps is clicking on all cylinders right now. The Coventry based team is second in the Aviva Premiership with 5 wins and 1 loss and they are on the back of a record breaking 82-14 win against Zebre, in Italy, in the first round of the Champions Cup. Sure, Zebre might be the worst team in the competition, but it was still a fantastic display of running rugby by Wasps – something which has been a habit this season, as their offense has been absolutely excellent. The visitors are hands down the best team in this group, by a pretty large margin.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will shuffle their lineups a little bit as they get some players back from injury. Former France captain Dusautoir being in Tolouse’s lineup is the biggest news and he should help them a lot.

Toulouse: 15 Maxime Médard, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Yann David, 11 Paul Perez, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Sébastien Bézy, 8 Carl Axtens, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Joe Tekori, 4 Yoann Maestri, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 2 Christopher Tolofua, 1 Cyril Baille

Wasps: 15 Jimmy Gopperth, 14 Christian Wade, 13 Elliot Daly, 12 Kyle Eastmond, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Dan Robson, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Ashley Johnson, 5 Matt Symons, 4 Joe Launchbury (c), 3 Jake Cooper-Woolley, 2 Tommy Taylor, 1 Matt Mullan

Toulouse can definitely match and maybe even dominate Wasps in terms of sheer strength. They might dominate the scrum, but that’s about it. Toulouse was dismantled by Connacht when it came to running rugby and wing play, so they will have an even tougher time resisting against a Wasps team that scored 12 tries against Zebre and which also has (by far) the best offense in the Aviva Premiership.

Toulouse has no choice but to slow the game down, look for scrums and penalties, but every time Wasps will run the ball there will be huge problems for the French hosts. The visitors have so much more speed and that should be the difference maker in the end.

Wasps is simply the better and more solid side. They are confident, execute their game plan week in week out, while Toulouse is making too many mistakes and seems to be in search for an identity. They really don`t have anything going for them coming into this match aside from physicality and home court advantage. They also badly need to win, so they will put in the effort. But I highly doubt this will be enough.

Expect Wasps to make less mistakes and create havoc everytime they push the ball wide. They should be able to score a fair number of tries in that manner, while Toulouse will have to work extra hard for their chances, as they will mostly come via scrums / mauls / multiple phases of forward play. Toulouse actually collapsed physically last week against Connacht due to working so hard with the forwards, so that might happen again today.

Wasps are one of the most in form European sides and they should have too much for Toulouse here, even if the hosts will surely look better at home than they did last week in Ireland. Expect the better, more cohesive and more confident team to win this game – and that team is Wasps. They are a well oiled machine, while Toulouse is a mistake making machine. It`s as simple as that right now.

The visitors should cruise in this group, leaving Toulouse and Connacht to fight for the second place. I will go for the straight victory here, no handicaps, so my tip is Wasps to win. Prediction: Toulouse – Wasps 21 – 28.

Pick: Wasps
Odds: 1.67 @ Slbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 23 October