Betdistrict.com
Ventspils hosts Malmo hoping to qualify over the Swedish giants in the Champions League. Ventspils got a great result in the first leg, 0-0, but Malmo comes to Latvia knowing they are still the favorites.
It was very surprising that Ventspils held for a draw in Sweden, but in all honestly they should have never got that result. They were heavily dominated, held only 35% of possession and sent zero shots on goal; while Malmo was missing from all positions. The hosts are a good team in Latvia, won the league last year and are second this year after 20 matches, but they are not a dominant force over the league. Latvian football is really bad right now, so Ventspils is far away from having the quality to compete with good professional sides in Europe.
Malmo is the best team in Sweden. Won the league last year, this year are even more dominant: already 6 points ahead of the 2nd place after 15 rounds. Malmo has a great team and is the biggest hope of Swedish football in Champions League since a long time. Very important fact in wake of today’s game is that Malmo plays very good on the road (6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in Allsvenskan). The difference between Latvian football and Swedish football is pretty big at the moment … so Malmo should be confident to qualify.
If Malmo plays the same game they did in the first leg they should win today, they were the much better team and were unlucky. But considering the quality of Malmo this year, I see them stepping up a notch and playing even better, which would mean big trouble for Ventspils. The hosts are limited in their football, they will try to defend and I think they will do a good job (they allow only 0.6 goals per game in Latvia), but they have no quality in attack; I doubt they can keep a clean sheet again for 90 minutes to go to overtime. I think Malmo will win to nil and will manage to qualify; the fact that they play very good on the road is also a good argument for this bet. So my tip will be Malmo to win to nil at Bet365, I think it is a better pick than a handicap because 0-1 is not out of the question, Ventspils will defend in numbers. The odds for “win to nil” and “-1,5 handicap win” are roughly the same. Correct score prediction: Ventspils – Malmo FF 0-2.
Pick: Malmo to win to nil
Odds: 2.4 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.2
Event date: 23 July
