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Villarreal hosts Cadiz in this Copa Del Rey match, riding a 2-1 advantage from the first leg.
I tipped Cadiz to not lose by more than 1 goal in the first leg and they won the bet, only losing 2-1 (see pick – opens in new window). However I made that pick knowing that Villarreal will field a team with a lot of reserves and had focus on a couple of crucial games coming up … even so they won 2-1 (led 2-0) even if they played over 30 minutes with 10 men.
After the 2-1 result vs. Cadiz, Villarreal won the next three games vs. Sociedad, Apollon and most notably Atletico Madrid in the weekend (at Calderon!). Hosts are in absolutely top form with 5 wins in a row and try to make it 6 today … team news say that the hosts will field pretty much the same lineup as in first leg, but the big news is Giovani Dos Santos coming back … he will probably play in the second half and will be a big improvement for Villarreal.
Bet on Villarreal vs. Cadiz with the best odds on european handicaps at Bwin.com.
Cadiz in good form, won both games convincingly after the first leg … but as seen in the prev. match vs. Villarreal, they just do not have the required quality to compete, even in their best form. Team news say Cadiz may choose to field a little weaker lineup than in the first leg (which was huge for them) …. now their chances are all but gone after the first leg 1-2 result and maybe 2-3 starters will be rested.
Looking at Villarreal’s win on the road in 10 men, I can not see Cadiz putting any kind of problems today. Cadiz could have got a draw in the first leg … they were not that bad, but they had all going for them and still could not make it … today Villarreal plays at home, has better morale, Giovani Dos Santos is back and Cadiz could rest 2-3 starters. Everything going Villarreal’s way and my tip will be on Villarreal to win and cover a 1 goal handicap (european). Yes, they are virtually qualified … but actually playing at home they will probably treat this game more seriously than the first leg, in which they really did not focus 100% and just wanted to get it over it. Villarreal will go and try to score 1-2 goals early to make sure they avoid an upset, and than play it safe to catch Cadiz another 1 or 2 times in a more open defensive setup for the visitors. Correct score prediction: Villarreal – Cadiz 3-0.
I choose the -1 european handicap instead of the -1,5 asian handicap (the same thing) because of the better odds available for this type of bet at Bwin.
Pick: Villarreal -1 EH
Odds: 1.72 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 17 December
