Wales – France

Rivals Wales and France will face off in an all European Rugby World Cup quarterfinal on Sunday.

Wales, the reigning Six Nations Champions, have hit form just at the right time in a World Cup year. Indeed, after a great first part of 2019, the Welsh rose to the expectations and performed admirably in the group stages of this World Cup. Wales won Pool D en-fanfare, with blowout wins over Georgia and Uruguay, and solid victories over Fiji (by 12) and especially over Australia (by 4). Wales looked strong and confident throughout, seeming in control of all matches at all times.

France wasn`t very spectacular so far, quite the contrary. Still, their level can`t yet be fully assessed considering that their last group game, against England, was cancelled. France started off with a crucial and remarkable 23-21 win over Argentina, but it was a game in which Les Bleus collapsed after a great first half and was lucky to escape with the victory, as Argentina had its chances to complete the comeback. The next game was a 33-9 win over USA, but it was just a three point game until the last 15 minutes. Finally, France was put under real pressure by Tonga, surviving for a 23-21 victory. The results and France’s play have been far from majestic.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will sent strong starting XV’s onto the pitch. Wales is at full strength and will field the exact same lineup which took care of Australia in their biggest test so far.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Josh Navidi, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones

France: 15 Maxime Medard, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Virimi Vakatawa, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Yoann Huget, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 4 Bernard Le Roux, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

Wales has subdued France in recent times, getting the better of their rivals in 7 of the last 8 meetings, including the last two. France has struggled pretty badly against Wales, and their only win during this timespan was a close 20-18 result in 2017 in Paris.

There`s little argument to be made against the statement that Wales is the stronger team, and has been for quite some time now. They are just better organized, have a better gameplan and the talent is superior, albeit only slightly – France has a lot of that as well. Experience is also on their side. They already beat France this year, and did it in Paris!

While Wales has been excellent at the RWC 2019 and already claimed a big scalp in the form of Australia, France hasn`t done anything to suggest they are contenders. They had a brilliant first half against Argentina, but struggled the rest of the way – even against USA or Tonga. If we are to judge them on their performances so far, they should be in for a big beating in this quarterfinals. But, in all likelyhood, they will show some improvement.

The French will hope that the extra rest, due to the cancellation of the game with England, will help. It could.

Weather won`t be a factor, as the match will be played at the Oita Bank Dome, which has a roof in case of unfavorable conditions.

France has what it takes to make this a competitive game and maybe even a close one, but they have consistently been second best to Wales in the last 4-5 years, and they have not shown anything in this tournament to suggest that could change. It`s quite the opposite, France has been disappointing, while Wales has impressed.

When you also consider the H2H, which clearly indicates France is a favorable matchup for Wales, you have to feel that the French winning would be a huge upset – a bigger one than the odds suggest. My tip will be a Welsh victory, look for their defense and structure to make the difference in a reasonably competitive clash. Prediction: Wales – France 26 – 16.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.40 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 20 October