Wales – Georgia

Wales Georgia rugby preview

Wales will host Georgia at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, hoping to get a win under their belt after the disappointing showing last week against Australia.

The Welsh lost by 8 points at home last Saturday to the Wallabies, and in all honesty the difference could have been slightly bigger. Although they remain a top side, the Welsh are clearly on a slight downtrend recently, which was also proved by their 5th place finish in the Six Nations at the start of the year. Some rebuilding might be needed, and Warren Gatland sees this game as the perfect opportunity to start that process, as Wales will field almost a “B” side against the Lelos.

Georgia opened their Autumn International campaign with a convincing 54-22 home win against Canada, proving yet again that they are knocking on the door of the Six Nations. The Georgians view this meeting as a crucial one for their future, going as far as to call it their “World Cup final”, and the Lelos will surely be fired up to prove they can battle it out with the Tier 1 teams.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will make no less than 14 changes to the lineup that lost against Australia, and will field a weakened starting XV here. Georgia won`t change anything compared to the match against Canada, which could be a problem physically – though it`s unlikely given their motivation.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Hallam Amos, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Seb Davies, 7 Sam Cross, 6 Dan Lydiate (c), 5 Cory Hill, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Leon Brown, 2 Kristian Dacey, 1 Nicky Smith

Georgia: 15 Soso Matiashvili, 14 Giorgi Koshadze, 13 Davit Katcharava, 12 Merab Sharikadze (c), 11 Mirian Modebadze, 10 Lasha Khmaladze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Beka Bitsadze, 7 Vito Kolelishvili, 6 Lasha Lomidze, 5 Giorgi Nemsadze, 4 Kote Mikautadze, 3 Levan Chilachava, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili

This will be a highly experimental Welsh side, and many fans are going as far as to say that it`s the worst starting lineup in the last 4 years. That might or might not be true, but it`s definitely a shaky looking starting XV.

Georgia is still some way off Tier 1 level, and at the same time last year they lost by 27 points in Scotland. However, Scotland didn`t rotate the squad as much as Wales will. Also, Georgia showed improvement against Tier 1 sides this year, losing by just 16 points back in June against a full strength Argentina team in Jujuy.

Look for the world class Georgian scrum to dominate the Welsh one, this is where Georgia has the edge, and they should be able to milk penalties and put points on the board through their physical play.

While even with a “B team” the Welsh are still by far the better side, they will not have the same chemistry and playing relations, and that will be a problem – particularly against a motivated opponent who will fight for every inch. I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Welsh make a couple of silly mistakes, maybe botch one or two tries.

It could well rain come game time, which would be an advantage for Georgia’s physical play, but the Millennium stadium has a roof, and the organizers could decide to close it. Light rain with no roof would be the best scenario for the Lelos.

All in all, Georgia to cover the handicap seems good value to me – especially as this is a huge match for them, and they are sure to give maximum effort for the entire game, and for every point. The line is moving towards 15.5, but the 16.5 point spread is still available pretty much everywhere, so that will be my bet. Prediction: Wales – Georgia 31 – 21.

Pick: Georgia +16,5
Odds: 1.94 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 18 November

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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