Wales – Scotland

Wales will take on Scotland at the Millennium Stadium in the second round of the 2016 Rugby Six Nations tournament. Neither team won in the first weekend, with Wales drawing in Dublin and Scotland losing at home to rivals England.

Wales will probably be satisfied with the 16-16 draw against Ireland in the first round, even though the Welsh led by 3 points late on and had a real shot to win. However, they were down 0-13 at one point, so the draw was a fair result. A pretty impresive result actually, considering that Wales’ most in form and important player, Dan Biggar, had to leave the field after just 21 minutes. He will be fit to start today, so that is great news for the Welsh. This team is even stronger than it was in the World Cup, with a lot of players returning from injury and after the positive performance against Ireland, Wales definitely looks like a legit Six Nations contender this season.

Scotland is clearly on the rise under Vern Cotter, even though they were overrated after a World Cup in which they were not as great as some people made them out to be. After almost defeating Australia in the quarters, experts were talking about how Scotland is back at the very top, but it was just one game and the team still has a lot of work to do. This was obvious last week, when they could not break down the English defense, despite playing at Murrayfield and eventually lost 9-15.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will field the same lineup that played last week and having Dan Biggar 100% fit is a huge plus for them. Scotland will make one change to the team that lost against England, as Matt Scott injured himself in training this week.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom James, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton (c), 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Rob Evans

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Duncan Taylor, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 David Denton, 7 John Hardie, 6 John Barclay, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson.

The Head 2 Head is largely one sided, with Wales dominating Scotland big time in the last years. The Welsh won the previous 8 Six Nations meetings and 6 of them were by more than 10 points. The last time these two sides met on Welsh soil was in the 2014 Six Nations and Wales won 51-3!

For all of Scotland’s progress, they still have some way to go before going toe to toe with the likes of Wales, England or Ireland. Wales is the better side by some margin and shouldn’t have too many problems winning this at home. They really have an excellent side, morale is good and they showed some excellent form in the first round.

Look for Wales to dominate with the forwards and the scrum, as Scotland can not match them in the pack. The hosts also have a clear cut advantage at the fly half position, with Dan Biggar expected to be all over Finn Russell. These kind of matches are always decided mostly by penalty kicking, so Biggar being 100% fit will give Wales a massive edge. Finn Russell was pretty poor against Ireland, so he might be in for a very long day against one of the top fly-halves in the game.

My tip is Wales to win and cover the 11,5 handicap. The draw in Dublin was all good and nice, but now Wales must start winning if they are to claim the title – and they know it. Expect them to come out strong right from the start, looking to win and win big. The odds were set too high for Wales, as Biggar was questionable, but now that it’s known he will start, the price is dropping on the hosts. Prediction: Wales – Scotland 30 – 13.

Pick: Wales -11,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 13 February