Wimbledon 2018 preview and outright bets by Ardeal

The 3rd Slam of the year, Wimbledon, will start Monday, 2nd of July and will have the men final July 15th. I will look into the draw and analyze a bit some betting opportunities for you guys.

Playing conditions are usually medium-slow at for a grass and as expected the results of big servers and serve/volleyers in recent years are bad and very bad. The CPI (Court Pace Index) rating from Hawk-Eye is 37.0, which puts the tournament in the ‘medium’ category. Weather-wise, the forecast looks very good compared to the past years, with an average of 28°C for the entire next week, and few rain chances.

Federer is the top seed for the men draw, despite being no. 2 in the ATP rankings and will have following possible path to the final:

R1: Lajovic
R2: Bonzi/Lacko
R3: Karlovic/Mayer
R4: Coric/Mannarino
QF: Querrey/Anderson
SF: Cilic/Dimitrov
F: Nadal/Djokovic/Murray

Nadal’s road to the final look a bit harder and bumpier at first glance:

R1: Sela
R2: Kukushkin
R3: Cecchinato
R4: Schwartzman
QF: Delpo/Goffin/Murray
SF: Thiem/Zverev/Djokovic
F: Federer/Cilic

There have been a few grass tournaments in this short swing and the winner names are as follow:

Stuttgart: Federer d. Raonic
Hertogenbosch: Gasquet d. Chardy
Halle: Coric d. Federer
Queen’s: Cilic d. Djokovic
Antalya: Dzumhur d. Mannarino
Eastbourne: Mischa Zverev d. Lacko

Looking at the names we can see some familiar names (like Federer, Cilic, and Raonic), but some surprises too (Coric, Chardy, Gasquet, and Dzumhur). All these players have shown some form during these 3 weeks prior to Wimbledon.

Price-wise in the outright market we have a clear favorite (Federer @ 2.88) and then we have a bunch of 3 guys with almost same chances (Djokovic @ 6.50, Nadal @ 9.00 and Cilic @ 8.50). The next 5 players are priced between 21.00 and 26.00 and those are Zverev, Kyrgios, Delpo, Raonic, and Murray.

The Swiss Maestro is a fair favorite for the title, and despite taking time off (like last year) during the clay season (3 months) and lacking some match practice he is the guy to beat. He is the title holder and public favorite too. His Stuttgart road to the title was rather hard (as expected after a long time off), losing sets to Mischa Zverev and Kyrgios during. The Halle road was even harder, looking at the results. He has lost set to Paire (saved match points in the deciding set tie-break too) but also struggled against Ebden and Kudla. The final was a match to remember for the eventual winner, Borna Coric. Federer played “pale” and didn’t look good at all during the match. Maybe the time off, or the two consecutive tournaments were too much for the 37-year-old champion. His stats weren’t that good neither during the Halle week, with a little above 100 serve-break combo.

Novak Djokovic, the second favorite in the eyes of the bookies, had a hard road from injury. the Queen’s week was very good, in my opinion, despatching Millman, Dimitrov, Mannarino, and Chardy in straight sets. He lost the final eventually to Cilic after missing match point on return and a 4-1 lead in the 2nd set tie-break. That one was very ugly, as I have tipped Djokovic to win the tournament @ 6.50 back then. His stats on grass during the last year are good to say least, having a 123,6 combined ratio, also amazingly a 114.1 ratio during all his Wimbledon matches. His last wins here were in 2014 and 2015 when he defeated Federer in both of the finals.

Marin Cilic is a great prospect for this year’s tournament and has a great grass court record in his career (75 wins and 26 losses). His results during this grass season were good, having won the only grass tournament, in Queen’s, defeating Djokovic in the final, after saving a match point (service winner). His results in Wimbledon are usually okish for his level, with at least QF in the past 4 years and reaching the final last year (lost to Federer). His performance in the last year’s final was disappointed as he was unable to fully compete, having an ugly foot blister that limited his movement a lot.

Rafa Nadal has won twice Wimbledon, but both times back in the day (2008 and 2010). HIs recent results at Wimbledon are sub-par performances, losing to Muller in R16 (in 2017), to Brown in R2 (in 2015), to Kyrgios in R16 (in 2014), to Darcis in R1 (in 2013) and to Rosol in R2 (in 2012). His grass matches this year are almost nonexistent as he decided to skip all pre-Wimbledon tournaments (he played two Exhibition matches on grass, lost to Pouille 7/6 7/5 and won against Ebden 7/6 7/5).

The other set of players with slim chances are Delpo, Zverev, Kyrgios, Murray, and Raonic. Kyrgios and Raonic are made to play on grass and their suited aggressive, serve-orientated game-style should make them reach at least QFs in Wimbledon. BUT, Kyrgios has almost entire year physical problems (combined with some mental issues too) and is unable to rely too much on his body, while also relying too much on tie-breaks played. He has dreadful return stats (under 10% break of serves) and that is really too low for even wanting to achieve something notable in any Slam. Raonic reached the SF back in 2014 and the final in 2016, which he lost to Murray. His last losses at Wimby were to Kyrgios, Federer x2 and Murray, which can be assessed as really good opposition. Del Potro has a good grass record, but his Wimbledon performances really let everyone down in the past years, managing to reach only one SF back in 2013, and early exits in 2016 and 2017 (to Pouille and Gulbis). Zverev’s record in Slams is well-known and as long as he cannot focus entirely on the matches and winning easy first rounds he has absolutely no chance in getting close to any semi-final. Remember Roland Garros, where he needed 5 sets against Lajovic, Dzumhur, and Khachanov, just to lose easy to Thiem in the QF.

Looking at the draw now, make us realize that the Goddess Fortune worked in favor of Nadal, but let’s be honest for a bit… Somebody might do a Brown or a Darcis on his way to the final stages. His lack of grass tennis recently and his body cannot do well enough on this low bouncing surface.

My conclusion is that we have two contenders that might be worth taking into consideration.

The first one is Cilic (@ 8.00) and the second one is Djokovic (@ 6.50).

Cilic’s road to the title should be as follows:

R1: Nishioka
R2: Pella/Kubler
R3: Krajinovic
R4: Raonic/Pouille
QF: Isner/Tsitsipas/Dimitrov
SF: Anderson/Coric/Federer
F: Djokovic/Nadal/Murray

Djokovic’s path to the final should be as follows:

R1: Sandgren
R2: Zeballos
R3: Edmund
R4: Verdasco/Thiem
QF: Kyrgios/Zverev
SF: Delpo/Goffin/Nadal
F: Cilic/Federer

My two picks for this year’s Wimbledon will be Cilic (8 units @ 8.00) and Djokovic (6 units @ 6.50). Each have shown both consistency and good morale in the past weeks, while their results at this particular Slam were good.

Quarter 1 will have Federer, Anderson, Coric, Gasquet, and Querrey as best contenders.

Quarter 2 will have Cilic, Raonic, Dimitrov, Isner, and Pouille.

Quarter 3 will have Djokovic, Kyrgios, Zverev, Thiem, and Nishikori.

Quarter 4 will have Nadal, Del Potro, Murray, Goffin, and Shapovalov.