I think that this is one of the most valuable odds for tonight, as I expect a first set tie break. Both of them are able to keep serve because of their weapons or their opponent's weaknesses.
Raonic has one of the greatest services on Tour and won 94% of them in 2015 and broke opponents 11%. Nadal on the other hand has a 86 hold % and a 36 break %.
They met last year in Miani in similar conditions where Nadal won 4-6 6-2 6-4, The first set was one won in the 10th game where Nadal had game point, but 2 UEs brought him to face a SP. I know that match because I was on it, betting wise, and I remind myself that the first set was a competitive and close one, as I expect today to be.
3-3 is the most probable score after 6 games and I expect this to happen. Raonic is yet to be broken, while Nadal lost his service twice against Simon and three times against Young. Milos is a poorer returner than the two that broke Nadal in the past 2 matches.
Pick: Score after 6 games: 3-3
Bookmaker: ➾ William Hill
Stake: 10 units
|TIPSTER: Ardeal||Total profit: +273.66||Tips won: 172|
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|Speciality: Tennis||Total picks: 463||Tips pushed: 21|
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