Zverev is definetely over-rated in this clash and I will be not angry if he will win because I know my stats here.
Zverev lost his last 6 matches on the main draw: Montanes in Umag, Schwartzman in Kitzbuehl, Dimitrov in Basel, Bautista in Rotterdam, Monfils in Marseille, Ilhan in Dubai. I know for a fact that he is not used to play servebots and that he is mentally unstable and gets frustrated very often. I know that he will be after some aces and unreturnable serves of Groth. The two players haven't played before, but seeing that Zverev lost to Sijsling (similar player) 6-7 6-2 6-0, Brands (6-1 3-6 6-3) and Muller (6-2 3-6 6-4) give me some value.
Groth is also on a losing streak and the conditions here aren't ideal, but are a little faster than the ones in Indian Wells. He lost in the 3rd round in Australian Open to Tomic, in the QF in Memphis to Anderson, in 1R to Lu in Delray, to Dolgopolov in 1st round in Acapulco and in Indian wells to Gimeno (7-6 7-6). I think that the serve and volley will do the trick and will bring Groth the victory.
Groth has won 88% of the service games, while Zverev only 59% and Groth broke 13%, while Zverev only 11%.
There is value and noone can argue with that.
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 8 units
|TIPSTER: Ardeal||Total profit: +273.66||Tips won: 172|
|Country: Romania||Total yield: +8.20%||Tips lost: 270|
|Speciality: Tennis||Total picks: 463||Tips pushed: 21|
|29.07||• Ryan Sweeting v Mitchell Krueger||1.36||8||✅||+2.88|
|28.07||• Sam Groth v Frances Tiafoe||1.3||8||✅||+2.4|
|24.07||• Ivo Karlovic v Radek Stepanek||1.35||8||✅||+2.8|
|24.07||• Pablo Cuevas v Steve Darcis||1.35||8||✅||+2.8|
|17.07||• Dustin Brown v Ivo Karlovic||1.36||9||✅||+3.24|
|14.07||• John Isner v Rajeev Ram||3.3||10||✅||+23|
|12.07||• Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer||2.05||9||❌||-9|
|08.07||• Stan Wawrinka v Richard Gaquet||1.52||9||❌||-9|
|06.07||• Ivo Karlovic v Andy Murray||2.23||9||✅||+11.07|
|02.07||• Dustin Brown v Rafael Nadal||5||7||✅||+28|