Sunderland had the better of Newscastle in this big derby rivalry, winning the last 4 consecutive matches and not losing since 2011.
I find some very interesting odds on this match on the cards / bookings market.
We have 2.10 for under 5,5 cards to be shown in the match. It`s important to know the rules at Bet 365:
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
2 Yellow cards for a player (and red card) = 3 Cards
Each team has only one match with over 5,5 cards from the last five.
This is a derby so things get more intense but even in this derby in the last five direct meetings there was only 2 games with over 5,5 cards.
So why these huge odds on under 5,5 cards?
I suspect because of John Carver's comments. The Newcastle manager looked like a crazy fan at the press conference, yelling how his team will grind it out, play manly football and tackle every ball. He said that he guarantees his team will not lack the commitement and effort and will out work Sunderland.
But who believes that really? I`m sure he will ask for commitment but in a realistic manner. He was just trying to score points with the fans, he knows his job is not stable as interim manager.
Realistically I can't expect this comments to translate into reality, I mean, it is not like Newcastle will start fouling at every ball and receive card after card. They will play with motivation but will not start diving into insane tackles.
5,5 cards is a huge ammount even with the Bet365 card calculation style and the under has very good odds at Bet 365. They have 1.67 for over and 2.10 for under, so margins are crappy, but odds should be reversed and that is why the value is amazing.
If not for a red card I think the bet is as good as won.
Pick: under 5,5 cards
Bookmaker: ➾ Bet365
Stake: 10 units
|TIPSTER: Rottmayer||Total profit: -18.07||Tips won: 26|
|Country: Moldova||Total yield: -4.87%||Tips lost: 22|
|Speciality: Tennis||Total picks: 48||Tips pushed: 0|
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