This one is coming a bit late, so I’ll try to keep it short and concise. I probably wouldn’t have written it up so late, but I really like my bet here. The match is set to start at 19:00 GMT, about two and a half hours from now, and it will take place in the Miami Open quarterfinals.
The main think for me here is that I wasn’t impressed with Bublik at all and I think he reached this stage mostly due to the circumstance of a very accessible draw. He played Djere and Duckworth in the first two rounds, very poor opposition for a Masters on hard courts, and was decent, but not much more than that. In the third round he met Fritz, and I want to talk a little bit about that match.
I think it is fair to say that Bublik was second best for the entire match against Fritz, but somehow he escaped with a 6-7 6-3 6-4 win. The match can be summed up pretty simply: Fritz was winning his service games with ease, while Bublik was struggling and saving break points on most of his service games. Unfortunately for Fritz, he had a couple bad games on serve and Bublik was exceptional in the important points (you have to give him that), so that was the match. Fritz was 3/11 on break points, Bublik 5/6.
I did not see anything special from Bublik aside from mental strength, and I think he will be outplayed by Sinner, a better player in better form.
The young Italian is arguably the biggest young sensation on tour and he is coming after a clinic display against Ruusovori, whom he beat 6-3 6-2. He has been excellent since turning around his second round match against Khachanov, where he had some problems with the heat for a set and a half. In fact, Sinner has been excellent all year and is really looking at the top of his game right now.
Bublik took a set from Sinner in Dubai two weeks ago (their only H2H meeting), and that’s the biggest concern I have about this bet. I think the odds are quite fantastic, I would have priced Sinner much lower.
I’ll take the Italian to win in straight. Prediction: Jannick Sinner – Alexander Bublik 7-5 6-3.
Pick: Sinner -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.08 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10.80
Event date: 31 March
Dupa 4 ore am primit notificare pe mail. S a intamplat si in trecut de mai multe oriπ
Eu cand scriu mai tarziu modific ora la care se trimite newsletterul ca sa ajunga la timp, dar am observat si eu ca s-a trimis la 2 noaptea notificarea, nu stiu de ce. In mod normal ar fi trebuit sa ajunga intre 21 si 23 (tot tarziu, dar predictia am scris-o cu mare intarziere, la 19:30).
Nu e ok daca zici ca s-a intamplat si inainte ca mailul sa vina dupa meci … o sa incerc sa scriu mai devreme si sa urmaresc cu mai mare atentie cand se trimite mailul, in cel mai rau caz o sa schimb serviciul, desi as prefera sa nu.
Daca se mai intampla nu ezita sa imi spui. Mersi!