Nobody has seen more goals in their matches this season than Holstein Kiel with an average of 3.33 goals in their matches so far. Crucially, of the 18 league matches so far this season eight of them have seen over 3.5 goals in Kiel matches. Only three of those have come at home but that doesn't concern me too much because they are very good scoring goals. In 9 home matches they have only failed to score twice and in the other 7 matches they have scored at east two goals and in three of them they scored 3 goals. They have also conceded in six of the nine matches.
Union Berlin have seen the third most amount of goals in their matches this season with an average of 3.28 goals. They have also had a high proportion of their games have over 3.5 goals with seven of their 18 matches going over that figure. Three of these have come in away matches but they have only failed to score in one of their away matches this season and in five of their nine away matches they have scored two or more goals. They have kept two clean sheets in away matches and one of those came in July.
Given that there are usually goals in matches involving these teams I like the odds for there to be over 3.5 goals in this one. Odds for over 2.5 goals are really short. You can get around 1.65, so I think odds of 2.76 for over 3.5 goals are giving us really good value. It should probably be around 2.50-2.60. When the teams met early on in the season there were plenty of goals with Union Berlin winning 4-3.
Pick: Over 3.5 Goals
Bookmaker: ➾ 1xBet
Stake: 8 units
|TIPSTER: O_Fortuna||Total profit: -22.59||Tips won: 74|
|Country: UK||Total yield: -1.39%||Tips lost: 133|
|Speciality: Football||Total picks: 211||Tips pushed: 4|
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|05.03||• Celta Vigo - Las Palmas||1.95||8||❌||-8|
|25.02||• Atletico Tucuman - Tigre||2.18||8||❌||-8|
|24.02||• Velez Sarsfield - River Plate||2.47||8||❌||-8|
|27.01||• Talleres - San Lorenzo||1.71||8||❌||-8|
|26.01||• Tigre - Banfield||1.75||8||✅||+6|
|25.01||• Independiente - Rosario Central||1.88||8||✅||+7.04|
|23.01||• Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin||2.76||8||✅||+14.08|
|14.01||• Adelaide - Sydney||3.25||8||❌||-8|