Unicaja is somewhat a Spanish CSKA at the moment...their game plan was similar and at this moment both are bellow average on their offensive ends. If I remember right these teams have in most of their games more 3pt attempts than 2pt attempts and sometimes those threes just don't go in. Against Crvena Zvezda, Unicaja was expected to score 83 while they collected 79, against Estudiantes they were expected to score 88 points while they collected only 82 pts...obviously they are bellow their capabilities or simply bookies expect too much of them. Now they are expected to score 87 points what again seems pretty high.
On other hand Limoges is a team that tends to play overish games but they are playing underish games as well and they are mostly pretty competitive...they haven't lost by this kind of spread in their last 14 games in all competitions, except against Crvena Zvezda by 12 pts.
Another positive thing is that I have expected Limoges will let Crvena Zvezda score at least 7-8 pts more, while against Valencia they were also pretty decent considering that Valencia scored 28 points in 1st QT and at the end they had 79 pts. In their last LNB game against Chalon Saone which is extremely offensive oriented team they held them at 73 points while bookies have expected them at 91 points...so it is almost 20 points difference in their defense and expectations of the bookies, at the same time Limoges collected 77 points even with tons of missed three pointers, they were bellow 30% in that section.
So we have Unicaja doing bellow expectations in terms of offense, Limoges doing better in terms of defense so I see there is a big chance that Unicaja will not be able to cover this spread, they would need imo to win 3 QT by at least 5 points and then not let Limoges take even one QT what I can hardly imagine. Limoges was poor in their last game and they were at 77 points and they can't do worse than that, only better.
I could see 83:78 result in this game.
Pick: Limoges +11
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 7 units
|TIPSTER: Eastwood||Total profit: +113.25||Tips won: 57|
|Country: Croatia||Total yield: +17.37%||Tips lost: 33|
|Speciality: Basketball||Total picks: 92||Tips pushed: 2|
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