Cilic – Federer

A slight feel of a potential upset seems to loom over the second Men`s US Open semifinal, as Cilic takes on a Roger Federer who struggled big time to overcome Monfils in the last round. However, I feel the analysis goes much deeper than that.

Credit to Cilic for destroying Berdych 3-0 in the quarterfinals, I never expected that, but truth to be told Berdych played an awful match – his serve and forehand were terrible especially in those first 2 sets and in those circumstances there was little he could do. Cilic is coming after a great season and he proved a couple of times that he can take on the best players even at Grand Slams (Berdych, Djokovic) so his excellent US Open form is not a big surprise. However, while Marin is playing good tennis, I`m not quite sure he has the game to push Federer today: he had big problems breakind down Simon in the quarters and could have lost that game, the big win against Berdych was circumstancial. Cilic`s defense is good but not top notch, his offensive forehand is class but he could not hit consistent against Simon without eventually making an error.

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Federer had to overcome a 0-2 set deficit and 2 match points to fend off an inspired Gael Monfils in 5 sets. Federer played his worst tennis in a long time in the first 2 sets, recovered at the best level in the next 2 and eventually benefited from a tired Monfils in the 5th. That was a very dangerous match from Fed, Gael`s defense was always going to pose big problems to the Swiss and his win was excellent. The worst thing for Fed in my opinion is that his serve was shaky, which is a big problem.

Federer leads the H2H 5-0 (4-0 on hard, 1-0 this year). Fed generally gets the best of Cilic but the two met just weeks ago at the Toronto Masters where the Croat put on his best performance against Roger – pushing him to the limit in a 6-7 7-6 4-6 loss.

It would not be the first time when Federer recovers after a dramatic 5 setter to easily beat a player like Cilic in the next round, and I think we could see something similar again. Cilic is playing good tennis but not good enough for a Grand Slam final, his matchup with Roger is not the best and I reckon Federer will come in much more focused after the Monfils epic – he will try to not let any sets slip away and will probably improve his consistency. However, improving the serve is not optional – he really needs to do that, but I reckon his experience will help him achieve just that. I can see Cilic putting a fight, but Federer in 3 or 4 sets seems like the best bet for me. My tip is Federer to cover the 1,5 handicap, not the best odds but a safe bet in my opinion. Prediction: Marin Cilic – Roger Federer 4-6 6-7 6-7.

Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.55 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.95
Event date: 6 September