🏆 Spain – France ❌

Spain takes on France on Tuesday in the Euro 2024 semifinals.

Spain has played some of the best football in this tournament and find themselves surprisingly favored against the pre-tournament favorites, France. While the Spanish side has been good so far, fact is they were lucky to beat Germany in the quarters. I reckon the Germans were the better team, especially after Spain scored the opener. Fullkrug created all kinds of chances and there was that penalty which should have been given against Cucurella as well. Spain showed weaknesses in that match.

France is making headlines by reaching the Euro semis without scoring a single goal from open play (2 own goals, one penalty). Despite all the quality in their ranks, the French have been mostly useless up front, but they defended very well and showed resilience to still reach this stage, and knocking out Portugal in the quarters was a solid win for them, which could give them a boost.

1xbit odds

Team news & lineups:

While France is at full strength ahead of this clash, Spain has big squad problems, missing no less than four key regulars (Pedri, Morata, Carvajal and Le Normand).

Spain: Simon – Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella – Merino, Rodri, Ruiz – Yamal, Olmo, Williams

France: Maignan – Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez – Kante, Rabiot, Tchouameni – Griezmann, Thuram, Mbappe

I feel the value is on the French here and being able to back them not to lose at odds above 1.50 is a really good option in my eyes.

For all of France’s struggles, their defense has been exceptional in this tournament (just one goal conceded), and that is very important considering the draw would be enough for us to win the bet.

Yes, Spain played better so far, but they showed weaknesses against Germany, they don’t quite have France’s individual quality and, most importantly in my eyes, they are missing 4 key players, which is huge at this level, where the margins are slim.

Pedri is obviously a massive miss, Morata could have been used in a match like this (even though Olmo has been better so far in his position) and Carvajal particularly is a blow. Will the 38 year old Jesus Navas be able to play a perfect match against Mbappe and the raids of Theo Hernandez?

I think there’s something to be said about France’s resilience, and nobody would be shocked if they raise their level in the final stages of the tournament, as big teams usually do. And even if I happen to misjudge the situation I still have France’s hermetic defense to at least help me out for a draw, which is great for my peace of mind.

My tip is France +0,5 handicap. Prediction: Spain – France 0-1.

Pick: France +0,5
Odds: 1.56 @ Brokerstorm
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 9 July

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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