🏆 Spain – England ❌

Spain will face England on Sunday evening in Berlin with the Euro 2024 trophy up for grabs.

Spain is coming after a hard fought 2-1 victory over France in the semifinals, coming back from 0-1 down to win their 6th game out of 6 played in this tournament (if we include the overtime win against Germany). The feeling is Spain has been the best team in the competition so far and it’s hard to argue with that sentiment.

Like Spain, England came back from one goal down in the semis to defeat Netherlands 2-1 in injury time. It was arguably the most solid game from a much criticized English side which played poor football for most of the tournament and reached this stage by the skin of their teeth, after a 95th minute equalizer with Slovakia and a penalty shootout with Switzerland.

Team news & lineups:

Spain welcomes back a couple of missing players and only has Pedri unavailable. As for England, there are doubts over Trippier, but they are at full strength otherwise.

Spain: Simon – Carvajal, Normand, Laporte, Cucurella – Ruiz, Rodri, Olmo – Yamal, Morata, Williams

England: Pickford – Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier – Mainoo, Rice – Saka, Bellingham, Foden – Kane

As I said, it’s hard to argue with the fact that Spain has been the best team in this tournament. However, I do have my arguments against the “Furia Roja”. Frankly, I haven’t been as impressed as most people.

I believe they were lucky to win in the quarters against Germany, and in the much praised win against France they scored two goals from two shots on goal. They needed a wondergoal from Lamine Yamal and a deflection to get over the hump against an awful French team and weren’t really able to create much danger aside from that. Truly, the french were just awful in that game.

While Spain has been solid, my view is that their exciting game and free flowing passing is bringing them more credit than they deserve. Objectively speaking, they should probably have gone out in the quarters, and they had two shots on goal in the semis. Sure, they played better football than England, but do they deserve to be pretty heavy favorites in a final against a team which boosts superior individual quality?

I believe England has gotten better as the tournament progressed and even though I’m in the minority here, I think they are a more robust and more resilient team than Spain. I believe the superior individual quality will have a big say in the final, and in my opinion England will win this trophy.

I admit I had similar feelings when Spain met France, but in all honestly France was just horrendous. They never got going in this tournament, while England has showed progress, mental strength and that resilience I was talking about.

Bottom line, I think Spain is a bit overvalued. I feel people are glossing over their weaknesses and over context, and odds should be at best even for the two teams. Expect a hard fought game, likely to be settled by slim margins.

My tip is England to cover the +0,5 handicap. Remember, for all the criticism, they haven’t lost so far, and I reckon they won’t in the final either. Prediction: Spain – England 1-1 (England in extra time).

Pick: England +0,5
Odds: 1.61 @ Brokerstorm
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.49
Event date: 14 July