Lithuania – France

Lithuania and France will take the court today in the playoff for the 3rd place in the FIBA Basketball World Cup. Surely it was tough for both teams to be knocked out in the semis, especially for France (Lithuania played USA), but I expect nothing but focus and desire from these sides today, as a medal would be an excellent feat.

I was very disappointed with Lithuania in this tournament and their semifinal showing was in my opinion totally circumstantial. They had only one truly good game in this championship, the close win against Slovenia which also sent them to the first place in the group. Besides that, unconvincing wins against poor opponents, a loss to Australia, nearly getting knocked out by New Zeeland (!!!) in the Round 16 and edging an out of form Turkey team in the quarters. Of course the loss to USA was expected in the semis, but Lithuania could have done better, as they ended up losing by 28 points. Surely a big problem for Lithuania has been losing their top point guard Kalnietis. A roster analysis will say they are stacked under the paint but the backcourt was already poor and there was / is no proper replacement for Kalnietis. Turnovers are a big problem for the Baltic side in these circumstances, as they average more turnovers per game than assists!

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France could have had an epic tournament if only their top guys like Tony Parker, Joakim Noah, Nando de Colo and others would have played. The current basketball european champions have played without a lot of key players but still have good quality in the side and managed to put together a strong tournament despite some struggles early on. In the last two games France beat Spain, an incredible result, and went on to lose a close game against an unleashed Serbian side in the quarters.

Lithuania will look to impose it`s superiority  under the paint and they will probably win a close battle there, but the backcourt matchup is just horrible for them. France should have a field day against the poor Lithuanian backcourt, force turnovers and impose the rhythm of the game against a team that virtually has no point guard. Many observers has noticed Lithuania`s obvious weaknesses and stated that their qualification in the semis was peculiar considering the way they played, and indeed this is the case. France has played better basketball in this tournament both overall and in the knockout stage.

My analysis suggests there are only two possibilities for Lithuania to win this – either their play their best match of the tournament (they do have the quality to play better, but can they do it without a proper point guard?), either France will be too disheartened by the loss against Serbia. I reckon these reasons are not enough for a pick on Lithuania, we must play the odds and the probabilities, and these are in France`s favor here. My tip is France to win. Prediction: Lithuania – France 70- 73.

Pick: France
Odds: 2.11 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.77
Event date: 13 September