USA – Serbia

Everybody was expecting a USA – Spain final in the FIBA Basketball World Cup, but the deserving Serbians will be the ones taking on the huge favorites USA.

USA had little trouble reaching this stage. Even without their top players who were not called up (Lebron James, Kevin Durant, etc.), USA demolished all opponents by 21 or more points. Friday in the semifinals the Americans were dominant against Lithuania, winning by 28 on the back of a particularly strong 3rd quarter. While the USA is without a doubt the top team in basketball and in this World Cup, the fact is their side of the draw was rather kind, looking at their road to the finals they really did not meet any respectable opponents – Turkey was clearly out of form, Lithuania was not playing well and reached the semifinals because of the same kindness of the draw. Indeed, USA got a big win against Slovenia in the quarters, with Slovenia looking great at that time, so maybe that was when USA proved they can step up when needed – but not even Slovenia was as scary as the teams in the other side of the draw.

Serbia did not play great in the Group Stage and many people (me included) expected them to go out in the quarters against Brazil, but somehow the proud basketball nation raised its level in the last two games and played to fantastic matches against Brazil and France, showcasing every possible quality – from the sound defense against Brazil to the flawless offense against France. This is a skilled and experienced team, they can play the game, but can they keep up with USA`s athleticism? My bet is they can, at least to some extent.

I reckon USA will end up winning the World Cup but Serbia has a chance to make it close. USA did show some weaknesses so far, a couple of players are not really in great form (Rose comes to mind) and most importantly they don`t have the same chemistry as Serbia, using a lot of rotation in the tournament so far. Another thing is that, while Serbia has a very experienced team, USA boosts a young team with very little experience in finals (NBA or International). Of course, the talent of the Americans is just unbelievable, but I feel all the arguments presented make a good case for Serbia to cover a reasonable handicap. They will need their 3 point shooting to click, they will need veteran center Krstic to provide effective minutes, but they can do it. My tip is Serbia to cover the 16,5 point handicap at very good odds by Will Hill. Prediction: USA – Serbia 95 – 82.

Pick: Serbia (+16,5)
Odds: 2.75 @ William Hill
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 10.5
Event date: 14 September