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Atletico Madrid lost 3-2 to Olympiakos in the Champions League and the match proved again a certain trend … Atletico’s defense is not rock solid at it used to be and leaks goals. The La Liga champions received 1 or more goals in each of their last 3 games, including vs. Eibar at home, and the way Olympiakos broke down their defense was just incredible. But despite the defeat midweek Atletico is in good shape, they recently beat Real at Bernabeu and have 7 points in 3 matches in Spain.
Hosting Celta Vigo maybe seems like an easy win for Atletico Madrid at first sight but for sure seasoned bettors know the analysis is more complicated … Celta is a very solid team and Atletico will miss Mandzukic … also Correa and Rodriguez. Still, Atleti will try to bounce back after the Olympiakos loss and at home they are deserving favorites to get the three points.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Celta Vigo occupies the 6th place after 3 rounds in La Liga, undefeated (1 win, 2 draws) and scoring 2 goals per game in average … which sends a dangerous message to Atletico’s defense. Celta finished tied last round with Sociedad, 2-2, in a very entertaining clash. It has to be said that it was the only good opponent that Celta met in the first three rounds, because Getafe and Cordoba were not exactly top class opposition. For today Celta has Oubina and Fernandez unavailable … top center back Cabral will undergo a late fitness test to establish if he can take part in the lineup.
After making an analysis on this game I am left with an easy choice – the best advice is a pick on goals, and that is exactly what I will bet on. Celta has excellent offensive abilities and they can surely score against an Atletico side that just does not find its legendary defensive strength (maybe Courtois leaving is a reason?). It remains to be seen how much work did Simeone put in with his defense, but I don`t think 3 days is enough time for any training / advice to be effective. On the other hand you have to expect Atletico to score as well and try to win the game, specially that Celta is not a top notch defensive team. My tip will be over 2,5 goals to be scored, I`m counting on Celta to find the net … but even if they don’t we can always rely on an Atletico 3-0 win as a backup plan. It’s a shame that Mandzukic won-t be in the lineup, but odds on the over are too good to pass up in my opinion. Last season Atletico won 2-1 at home and I see a similar result today. Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid – Celta Vigo 2-1.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.06 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.42
Event date: 20 September
