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Third seed Roger Federer will play his first match at Shanghai in the second round against Leonardo Mayer, who kicked off his campaign with an easy win over Di Wu on Tuesday.
We all know Federer had a great season so far this year, much better than 2013 and the Swiss is looking really sharp, playing good tennis. After his disappointing semifinal exist at the US Open Federer went in Switzerland to play Davis Cup on clay against Italy, winning both matches, and this will be his first match since than. It remains to be seen just how good Roger will be today in his opening game after a change of scenery and surfaces, especially considering that Shanghai has never been a favorite hunting ground for him (never won it) and he played particularly poor here in the last years.
Mayer is having the best season of his career, no doubt about that. The Argentinean has always been a huge talent but his inconsistency held him back, forcing him to alternate good performances with horrible ones, most notably losing the 44 year old legend Thomas Muster a couple of years ago. This year however has been different, Mayer posted some great results and he is making damage on the tour with his big serve and big forehand, reaching Top 25 ATP for the first time in his career. Leonardo lost both matches he played in Asia before Shanghai (Klizan, Nieminen), but he easily dispatched Di Wu 6-1 6-4 in the first round here and seems to have got back into form.
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The two players have never met before on tour. The matchup analysis will say Federer likes to play against guys with big serves, but on the other hand he struggles against power hitters like Mayer, so it will be an interesting clash here.
Listen, Roger is the overwhelming favorite for a reason and odds of 1.10 are justified – he will most likely win this, but I expect it to be rather tight. It`s well known that Roger is not the guy to hand over big beatings in the first rounds of tournaments (aside from meeting absolute mugs), he is usually satisfied with a break per set (or even less). When you add to this the fact that this will be his first match in Asia, that he never played well here and that he is meeting a really good opponent, it`s very hard to expect anything more from him than something like 6-4 6-3 here. The 19 game line is really low and I reckon the over should bring us a solid win. Expect Mayer to stay in the match with his serve, maybe reach a tiebreak, while Federer will be content to push on the big points. There will surely be a lot of errors from Roger as well, as he will look to find his rhythm and adjust his game. The analysis could not be any clearer here and my tip is over 19 games. Prediction: Roger Federer – Leonardo Mayer 7-6 6-4.
Pick: over 19 games
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 8 October
