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Roger Federer will take on the surprise package of Gilles Simon in the Shanghai final, after both players produced their best tennis this week.
The Swiss Maestro was absolutely breathtaking in the 6-4 6-4 semifinal win against Djokovic, playing his best tennis in a very long time, looking just like in his old days – improving his level, which was already very high this season. After battling in a 3 set thriller past Mayer in the second round, Federer played better and better with every round that passed and surely he must be an overwhelming favorite today against Simon. Roger has not allowed a single break in the last 3 matches and faced only 2 break points. Djokovic had a single break point on Friday against Fed.
The frenchman is bidding for his first ever Master Series title and the way he played this week, you have to give him some credit. Similar to Federer, Gilles improved his level round after round and defeated some big names like Wawrinka and a red hot Berdych along the way. Simon was flawless in his semifinal win against Lopez, easily breaking down Feliciano’s serve & volley / sweve & forehand style of play. Great movement by Gilles and the way he makes the transition between Nadal-like defense and sharp offensive angles is the best you will see these days in tennis.
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Federer leads the H2H 4-2 (2-2 on hard), but it`s more like 3-2 and 1-2 on hard considering that Simon retired in one of the matches after just 3 games. Gilles won the first two meetings back in 2008 and lost the following, but he always gave Federer fight. Two of Roger`s wins were 5 setters, one was a retirement and only one was straightforward. Simon`s smart-agressive style of play and his fantastic defensive movement enables him to counter Roger`s style.
Listen, Federer has been at his absolute best this week and he should win this hands down, especially if we take into account his experience. However, I can`t see Gilles going down without a fight, not the way he has been playing this week. If you watched his matches you will wonder how on earth could he possibly lose a match in this kind of form – true, Federer is the best at exposing opponent`s flaws and he will surely do it again tonight, but the handicap line set by the bookies is just too big (and the under/over line too low). Expect Simon`s style to cause problems to Roger again and Federer will need his best tennis to win this – including keeping up the amazing level on serve. Gilles has the form and the H2H matchup to make this close.
I was thinking about Simon to cover the 4,5 game handicap, but I think the over 21,5 games bet is better. I think a score like 6-2 6-7 6-3 or something similar is more likely than a 6-4 6-4 for Federer, and the odds for the over are better as well. I`m pretty sure the line here should be over 22.5, to make the difference between a 7-6 6-4 and a 7-6 6-4 so I will capitalize on that. My tip will be over 21,5 games, but keeping the stakes reasonable as betting against Federer in this kind of form surely presents a risk. Prediction: Roger Federer – Gilles Simon 7-6 7-5.
Pick: over 21,5 games
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.65
Event date: 12 October
