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Austria hosts Montenegro in Wien and has a big chance to really get ahead in this group and in the Euro 2016 qualification race … Austrians made a 1-1 draw with Sweden in first round and won 2-1 in Moldova last round. Montenegro also has 4 points but only played Moldova and Liechtenstein. Group also contains Russia, so a very balanced group and every point will be important.
Austria has one of the strongest teams in the last decades, I won’t deny they are some personal favorites of mine because they invested in youth and are starting to get rewards … recent performances were great, even 1-1 draw with Sweden is a match Austria deserved to win, creating many more chances. At the moment Austria is undefeated for the last 7 games and for sure odds are they will stay undefeated after today, but Austria wants the win, not the draw. Hosts have a big problem because main striker and here in the Moldova win, Janko, will not play.
Montenegro had a really good chance to make an early statement in this group, but after 2-0 win vs. Moldova they failed to win in Liechtenstein Thursday … only a 0-0 draw but in all honesty an analysis of the game shows Montenegro really had chances and should have won … but percentages in front of goal were horrible. Visitors have a couple of good players (Jovetic, Vucinic) but do not look like a team and suffer in playing realations … also some weak spots in the roster. Montenegro is free of new absentees.
Janko missing will be a blow for Austria but they rely more on the force of the group so I think somebody will step in his place to score the goals. Hosts have big motivation today to get a big option to qualify for Euro 2016, are an energetic team and I bet they will manage to get past a Montenegro team that really has nothing special. Odds seem a little bit high for me, odds of almost evens does not do Austria justice. I will tips an Austria win … hosts are the better team and home advantage is set to be a decisive argument in my analysis. Correct score prediction: Austria – Montenegro 2-1.
Pick: Austria
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 12 October
