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A lot of mathematics and calculations needed here as Simona Halep takes on Ana Ivanovic in the last group game of the WTA Singapore World tour finals, I`ll lay out the facts quickly and concise below.
Halep is already qualified. She will also finish first if she wins at least 5 games today. Ana Ivanovic needs a win in two sets to qualify – this being said an Ivanovic win in two sets with Halep winning more than 5 games would be fantastic for both players, as Halep will qualify first and Ivanovic second, with the main threat of Serena Williams being eliminated. Additionally, as this will be the last match of the day, Halep and Ivanovic will also know whou they could meet in the semifinals, but I doubt this will influence the course of the match. The only certainty is that Halep would want to avoid Sharapova, but the Russian to qualify is a Science Fiction scenario. All in all, Ana Ivanovic is motivated to get the win and the real question is whether Halep will choose to fight for a success or if she will be satisfied to lose a tight two setter, winning the group and knocking out Serena Williams.
Regarding form, Halep entered this tournament with questionmarks over her level of play and here physical conditions, but was absolutely dominant in defeating Bouchard and especially Serena Williams (6-0 6-2), an incredibel result with some amazing tennis played by Halep – even though obviously Serena was far from her best. Ivanovic in two sets to Serena but defeated Bouchard in two sets in the last match, she`s looking pretty good but not really top class.
Bet on Simona Halep vs. Ana Ivanovic at Singapore with the best odds by Unibet.
Personally I have no idea how Halep will approach this game. Some guys are saying that surely she`ll fight for the win as a champion, other guys are saying that she will “fix” this, wanting to knock out Serena Williams – come on, there`s just no way we can know that for sure. The only thing we can suspect is that Halep will not want to play three sets, it would be a silly thing to do, so I am pretty confident that if she loses the first set she will not force a decider (especially with her controversial history on retiring when she`s losing). Considering all these facts of the analysis, I really like a bet on the under 21,5 line (with the odds dropping on this one). If Halep comes out to play she is clearly a huge favorite to win, she`s playing much better than Ivanovic and she should win in two sets – she`ll also be motivated to not go to three sets. Ivanovic herself needs a win in two sets so she`ll be determined to achieve that – if she ends up losing the first set, she will have nothing more to fight for. Basically whoever loses the first set would not have any real reason to force a decider, aside for money (which is big, I`m not denying it, but the opponent would have additional motivation to win in 2).
Regarding the win/lose market I would go with Halep to win, as long as she actually has the higher odds it`s only natural to go with the certainty that she`s the better player in better form than bet on suspicions at 1.75 (Ivanovic). However, the under looks much better and this tip really makes sense, even is a 2 set outcome surely does not automatically mean under 21,5. As a sidenote, all the 5 matches in these group ended with under 21,5 games. Correct score prediction: Simona Halep – Ana Ivanovic 7-5 6-2.
Pick: under 21,5 games
Odds: 1.86 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.74
Event date: 24 October
