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Romanian number 1 Victor Hanescu will take on local boy and fan favorite Nicolas Mahut in the second round at the Mouilleron Le Captif challenger.
Hanescu played a solid match in the first round to defeat Florent Serra 7-5 7-6, with the frenchman being in great form after a final at Reunion Island last week (lost to Haase in 3 sets). Victor served well, and that`s always an indication that he`s playing good – somewhat similar to Federer, proportionately speaking. The 33 year old Hanescu struggled a lot this season, he dropped out of the Top 100, playing really poor tennis especially in the spring and summer. However, he stated that he wants to make one last push in his tennis career, playing a few more grand slams and he went on to sign up for a couple of hard court challengers and qualifications late in the season, very unlike him. He started off slow, but he`s clearly improving – in the last two tournaments he qualified on the main draw at Vienna (lost to Becker in 3 sets) and reached the quarters at the strong Geneva challenger (lost to Przysiesny in 3, but he could have won that match in 2 sets).
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It goes without saying that Mahut is one of the most inconsistent tennis players on tour, but lately he has been rather consistently poor. After two consecutive losses, Mahut edged qualifier Gregoire Jacq here at the Mouilleron Le Captif challenger, having to play three sets against a player who is barely ranked in the Top 800! Overall Nicolas had a poor season, he dropped out of the top 100 and hasn`t performed at his best level for a long time.
The H2H is 2-0 for Hanescu (1-0 on hard). The first meeting was in 2003, the second in 2012 at Sydney. Victor won both times in straight sets without even playing a tiebreak, so he seems to have Mahut’s number, though the H2H is not completely relevant with just two matches. The surface here in France will favor Mahut, that`s a fact.
The odds are absolutely crazy here and there is no way Mahut can be a 1.45 favorite in this match. No way! Hanescu is not quite at his best level but he`s playing good tennis and improving day after day, he`s really trying and is very motivated. Mahut on the other hand is blowing unforced errors all over the place and you simply can’t trust him to win a match against anyone. As I said Mahut is the better player on hard but it doesn`t really make a difference, as Nicolas will always lose on any surface when he`s not in his best form and painting the lines – and he really does not look in that kind of form lately. I know Hanescu very well and this is a match he should go on to win, so my tip is a Hanescu win. Win or lose, I will have no regrets over this bet – the value is fantastic and I am confident Victor is the favorite and will get the win. Prediction: Victor Hanescu – Nicolas Mahut 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Hanescu
Odds: 2.72 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 17.2
Event date: 6 November
