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Wawrinka will probably need to be at least competitive in this match in order to qualify in the next stage of the ATP World Tour finals. He pretty much needs to better Berdych`s result against Djokovic, which should not be hard to do. Cilic needs a miracle to qualify, we can pretty much rule him out of the equation, he would need a brutal two set win to even stand a chance.
Wawrinka started off great with a 6-1 6-1 win over Berdych but could not replicate the same performance against Djokovic, losing 6-3 6-0 and making us remember that he entered this tournament on the back of some really poor form. However, Stan did play a great game against Berdych and Nole was simply untouchable two days ago, so you really can`t hold that big defeat against Wawrinka. He`s shaky right now, but there are positive signals in his game.
Cilic was simply atrocious in this tournament. He was nowhere to be found after the US Open (won Moscow, but an easy draw), playing bad tennis and here at the World Tour finals he won just 6 games in two matches. Cilic looked really down after the 6-3 6-1 Djokovic Berdych defeat, saying that his game is just not working. He also stated that he`s not in his best physical shape and sounded like he has no motivation or / and confidence for this final match.
Bet on Stan Wawrinka vs Marin Cilic with the best World Tour finals tennis odds at Bet365.
Wawrinka leads the H2H 7-2 (3-2 on hard, 2-0 in 2014. He can really handle Cilic`s game and gave the Croatian two massive beatings this year: 6-0 6-2 and 3-6 6-0 6-1. Stan seems to like Cilic`s style a lot and regularly wins sets by big margins against him. Of course, Marin reached another level with his US Open win, but he`s nowhere near that form right now, looking tired and unfit. Overall, big matchup handicap for the tall Croatian.
Stan might not be in his best shape this week but he is playing positive tennis and also showed he can be consistent for a whole match in his win against Berdych. Cilic is just dirt poor right now, he has no expectations today and according to his own words he`s not even fit. In these circumstances I expect a big win for Wawrinka, especially given the fact that he will probably be the more motivated player come game time.
My tip is Wawrinka to win and cover the 3,5 game handicap – I`ll choose this bet over the set handicap having in mind that Wawrinka can be a bit inconsistent and he could maybe lose a set only two cruise in the other two, though I do not expect such a scenario. Prediction: Stan Wawrinka – Marin Cilic 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Wawrinka (-3,5)
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 14 November
