LA Lakers – OKC Thunder

I am writing this pick on Thursday night, 23:00 GMT, some 30 hours before the game. I want it that way because later tonight OKC (my favorites to win this) will play the Warriors and if they win, the odds will surely go down – if they lose, they will stay the same. Actually, the odds are already going down and the spread is moving up.

The Lakers (8-17, 3-9 home) are having a sinusoidal season, winning some games, losing others by blowouts. They are not so bad, but not so good either. One thing has been consistent though – LA is getting blown out each time they meet a young and fast team from the Western Conference. Lakers did get a fluke win at a Leonard-less San Antonio but besides that, they have been ridiculised by every Western team that can run the floor, from the Warriors to the Pelicans, losing by 10-20 points each time. It`s no surprise really, as the Lakers have absolutely no defense and are relying on a 36 year old Kobe Bryant to carry the load. In the last match on 15th December, LA was demolished by a poor Indiana team, being led by 33 points at halftime!

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Oklahoma (12-13, 5-8 away) was decimated by injuries early in the season, having to play without the all star duo of Westbrook and Durant and a whole bunch of other important players as well. Their losing record is completely irrelevant, this is a side that can win the NBA championship, but the record does determine one thing – OKC is now 100% focused and motivated to win every game, having to overcome those early losses.

OKC plays tonight against the Warriors and will be back to back on the road when they meet the Lakers, with LA having no less than 3 days of rest. This is a big advantage for LA on paper, but at a closer look might not mean so much – Oklahoma has so many young legs, their key players barely played this season and they are hungry to win every game, so I really doubt they will be affected by the back to back (unless it goes double or triple overtime, which hopefully won`t happen – but even that wouldn`t be so important in my opinion considering the Lakers` key men are so much older).

My tip is Oklahoma to win and cover the 6,5 point spread in the process. I`m taking the quality difference into account and Oklahoma`s hunger to win each and every game, but the most important argument in the analysis is that the Lakers simply match up horribly against this kind of team. LA is also not so hot at home. I expect Durant and Westbrook to rip LA`s defense to shreds and we should see a comfortable 10-20 point Oklahoma win here. The spread is really accessible. Prediction: LA Lakers – Oklahoma City Thunder 98-115.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (-7,5)
Odds: 1.92 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 20 December