Murray – Kyrgios

A rejuvenated Andy Murray will take on local favorite Nick Kyrgios with a place in the Australian Open semifinals up for grabs.

Murray is looking really well in this tournament, playing some Djokovic-like tennis, he really seems back at the level he was on before the surgery he had late in 2013. Andy cruised trough the first three rounds before defeating Dimitrov 3-1, a match in which Grigor played really solid. He was close to forcing a decider, but Murray came back brilliantly to win the last 5 games in the 4th set and seal the win. Andy did seem a little passive at times, but he got the job done and was generally at a top level.

Kyrgios came back from 2-0 down against Andreas Seppi in the fourth round, winning 8-6 in the decider and showing some great fighting spirit. However, he was inconsistent throughout the match, again – he lost 2 sets to Delbonis, lost a set to a Karlovic that played a bad match and should have lost one against Jaziri as well. Nick wasn’t able to keep his optimal level of tennis in none of his fourth matches so far and he surely has to improve a lot if he is to challenge Murray today. The Australian is clearly serving lights out, but his return game is poor and he can`t stay in rallies consistently enough.

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Andy Murray leads the H2H 1-0, an easy 6-2 6-2 win at Toronto last year. I reckon it was a pretty relevant victory, because Kyrgios was already an established player in great form, while Andy was not quite playing his best. It`s pretty obvious that Kyrgios will always have a tough time against Andy because his main weapon is the serve, which Murray (one of the best returners on tous) can pretty much nullify. On the other hand, Nick can gain an edge by attacking the weak Murray second serve – something he can do, but is not always willing or consistent enough.

Listen, Kyrgios did a great job to reach the quarters and you can`t get here by playing bad tennis, but the did have an accessible draw and did not play his absolute best tennis. Murray is in great shape, he`s the better player of course and has a ton of experience at this level. I also consider the matchup to be in his favor due to his return, as Kyrgios really has no chance if he can’t dominate his service games. Nick will be pushed from behing by the fans as always, but due to the ticket pricing on Rod Laver Arena the atmosphere is always inferior to Hisense, where Kyrgios had so much support.

My tip is Murray to win in straight sets. I`m itching to go with 9-10 units here, but betting on sets is always a risk, especially since we can expect a tiebreak – so I`ll keep the stakes reasonable. Prediction: Andy Murray – Nick Kyrgios 7-6 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Murray 3:0
Odds: 2.06 @ Youwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.42
Event date: 27 January